January-Level Cold to Dawn the 2nd morning of April but don't fret, here's some summer theory which may lift your winter blues...
Note Aviemore's expected low tonight!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/365
EXTRA WARM WATERS SURROUNDING GREAT BRITAIN MAY HAVE BEEN A NEGATIVE TO US DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, POSITIVE IF YOU LIKE A WARM WINTER.... BUT THINGS MAY CHANGE THIS SUMMER AHEAD...
It's understandable that if the Pacific is warm and Atlantic is warm, your going to warm the continents in between... We have seen WELL ABOVE normal water temperatures over the past 10 years, but generally waters have been above normal since the turn to global warming back at the commencement of the 1980s, the early to mid 2000s has seen probably some of the greatest above normal water temperatures around Britain and this has ultimately produced warmer winters and fed Atlantic low's which have produced wetter, windier conditions, but also wetter summers also.
A warmer ocean or sea surrounding a small island like Great Britain will increase water vapor to the atmosphere, when you get a pattern which sends those Atlantic depressions our way, it's very possible, that warmer water surrounding us will feed energy into storm system and increase both it's energy and more importantly, it's amount of rainfall it can produce.
2007 through 2009 have been epic wet, dreary summers, particularly for Scotland where the jet stream has stubbornly ran over us, England tends to be just far enough south to experience slightly drier and warmer summers as continental warmth can reach southern England more efficiently than further north. Although last summer was still milder than "average". It was mild, through the rainy days and because the overall picture was of a warmer rather than a cooler one... That has been the way for years now and the "warmer than normal summer" was deceptive.
So, a warmer Atlantic over the last 3 years I believe has INCREASED our summer precipitation but what happens when that same water surrounding us COOLS which it has done, thanks to a cold winter, WE REALLY NEEDED A NICE LONG-LIVED COLD WINTER to drive those abnormally warm NE Atlantic waters down and this may be what we need in order to snap the pattern we have found ourselves in since 2007 began AFTER a warmer, drier summer in 2006...
Many reactions occur when major drivers switch or flip. The major Atlantic driver such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has major influence on particularly winter in Western Europe and eastern North America but also plays a role in an either settled or unsettled summer pattern the AO (Arctic Oscillation) also can influence summer, but less so, and likely the biggest and certainly larger scale influence is that of the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean which feeds back to the GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE and can alter the mean ridge trough pattern across the globe depending on whether there's an El Nino and La Nina in effect, of course these work with other drivers to produce the overall weather pattern. The El Nino of this past winter, combined with possibly a higher concentration of High-Latitude Volcanic Activity is the possible cause of major "Blocking" which meant the worst of the cold over the Arctic was delivered and stationed over Western and Central Europe and the heart of central and northern Asia...
Ocean and Atmosphere play in harmony and this summer, the collapsing El Nino which warmed the overall temperature of the earth (believe that or not) and this combined with cooler waters surrounding the UK, "should" mean a break from the washout years between 2007 and 2009. After this El Nino goes, a La Nina will develop and we are likely to see a rapid fall in earth's temperature over the next two to three years, what that will mean for UK long-term weather remains to be seen. Next winter already appears to look LESS HARSH than this winter because we won't have the El Nino which tends to help a colder UK/western Europe winter and also waters may likely rebound as a warmer summer, dominated by High Pressure, gradually heats up our surrounding waters once again, BUT it doesn't mean a cold winter won't happen next year, I just feel we may have a slight rebound but could well still have a "below normal winter" temperature-wise as our overall temperatures is gradually falling again year by year. I just don't not quite see a repeat of 2009-10 for the UK.. The AMO is still warm and other pattern drivers will be in control by 2010-2011. Perhaps we see a less overall cold winter but a period of cold which re-writes the history books or produces bigger snows... A la Nina will dominate the cold pools, distributing the cold pools differently and even the NAO and AO will likely have changes up their sleave from this year. No year is the same.. (I wouldn't be surprised if much of the US and Canada saw an EXTREMELY SEVERE AND LONG WINTER next year with La Nina coming on. Though winter 2010-11 may be as bad as this year in the UK, we should have a colder overall earth, so we will need to wait and see what.
AN INCREASE IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE THE COOL DOWN OF THE PLANET...
That all being said, of we happen to see a further rise in Arctic volcanic activity, then we might see this type of winter we just had sooner rather than a few years down the road. Whilst this winter was certainly severe and long, I have deemed this one "average" when compared to those batch of winter during the heart of the last cold period from the start of the 50s through the 70s.. It has been severe when comparing with the last 30 winters in which global warming and a warmer than normal Atlantic and Pacific have been warming the overall temperatyre of earth and therefore taking an edge off winters globally. This past winter may be a sign of the AMO flip to cold and that means a gradual cooling of UK winters look likely, it won't be a sudden return to the ice age but more a step down year by year. One winter that's very cold may be followed by a less cold winter, but just not as warm as previous ones... then a colder winter again... you get what I mean?? Evetually the Atlantic will be cold and both Pacific and Atlantic should have a period of several years were their both cold and therefore a series of years should display brutal winters. What must be considered though is that if the solar cycle continues to fall away and this meets head to head with some major Arctic Volcanic eruptions, worse winters than those of the 50s, 60s and 70s may happen. Believe me, we should all be concerned if winters in the era between 1700 and 1900 return... Those kinds of winters would make the past winter the a stroll in the park....
Appologies for this rather long-winded post, I didn't intend on writing quite as much as I have done...
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Visit the Facebook Fan Page for additional information, photos and global weather news here: Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan and become a fan!
Thursday, 1 April 2010
Wednesday, 31 March 2010
Worst Winter Since the Fact and Fiction of Global Warming Began, 30 years ago!
Northbound on the M74, March 31, 2010A CRUEL END TO A CRUEL WINTER, BUT DOES THIS WINTER COMPETE WITH THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE 30 YEARS OF GLOBAL WARMING??
- By Mark Vogan
Yes, this winter is worst since 1978-79 for all of Britain. Yes, that's a significant time frame in which we haven't seen a winter anything like the one we're STILL enduring as of the final day of March, when the clocks have went forward and it's supposedly "British Summertime"...
However, that winter (78-79) was at the close of the last cold period, since then we have been warming up until probably the late 90s and then a turn took place in which sent earth's temperatures falling once again.. My question is, how does this compare to those brital winters BEFORE the whole Global Warming thing kicked in? Scotland has seen it's worst winter since 1962-63, which tells me that this winter is a little more significant because, that tells me that this winter has been worse than many within the last cold period, however. The 62-63 winter was far far worse and winters prior to 62-63 were worse than even that.
I believe that this winter wasn't as bad as 62-63 and there was much more severe winters prior to 62-63. In terms of comparing the very worst winters EVER and I', talking those in centuries gone by when it was the little ice age, this would be considered "mild" and during the previous cold period, this would have been an "average" winter overall. What's interesting to me is that though there were warm episodes within an overall cold dominated winter, there was very little moderation in both cold and snow within the Highlands of Scotland and as an actual fact, the winter of 09-10 is considered the coldest on record for the Highlands and this likely puts Scotland's winter rankings back to 62-63...
It has been a long, cold and tiring winter, probably more for the fact I have been driving a truck through it all winter and even today, March 31st, I drove through heavy, windblown snow, which covered the roads.... You don't really expect that when it's April tomorrow...
I do believe that over the next 20 years, we will see a winter worse than 09-10, but I will say, this winter will be a tough one to beat... but it will happen whether it's next year or 15 years from now.
Visit the Facebook Fan Page for additional information, photos and global weather news here: Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan and become a fan!
Mark Vogan's Preliminary United Kingdom Summer Forecast 2010
A WARMER, DRIER, BRIGHTER SUMMER LIKELY THIS YEAR, Despite Britain suffering through it's Coldest Winter in Decades and the past 3 summers being a washout.....
Despite a long, tiring winter dealing with snow, ice and cold, I have reasons to believe that this upcoming summer season could prove to become the warmest, driest in several years after 3 straight "Washouts".
Read Full Forecast here:http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2010/03/mark-vogans-preliminary-united-kingdom.html
Despite a long, tiring winter dealing with snow, ice and cold, I have reasons to believe that this upcoming summer season could prove to become the warmest, driest in several years after 3 straight "Washouts".
Read Full Forecast here:http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2010/03/mark-vogans-preliminary-united-kingdom.html
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Mark Vogan's UK Summer Forecast to Be Released Tomorrow (Wed, March 31, 2010)
Click on here http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/ to see Mark Vogan's UK Preliminary Forecast for Summer 2010.... which will be released at 5pm GMT Wednesday, March 31, 2010.
If you haven't already, click onto the "Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan" Facebook page and become a fan!
-M.V.
If you haven't already, click onto the "Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan" Facebook page and become a fan!
-M.V.
Monday, 29 March 2010
ARE WE ENDING AN ERA OF FREQUENT AND INTENSE WINTER WINDSTORMS IN THE UK?
By Mark Vogan
COLDER WINTER AND NO SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR HAS KEPT THE WINDSTORMS ROARING OVER THE IBERIAN PENN THIS WINTER SEASON, BUT TRANSITION TOWARDS SUMMER HAS TRANSPORTED THE AVENUE OF STORMINESS "NOW OVER THE UNITED KINGDOM" ON IT'S JOURNEY TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NOW THE THERMAL CONTRAST AND BAROCLINIC PROPERTIES ARE IN PLACE FOR A STORMY MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY....
After a high of 42 degrees and dry afternoon, the winds have picked up and heavy rains have returned, driven aboard freshening east winds and a temperature that's continuing to fall through the 30s. After 39 just 2 and a half hours ago, we're now down to 34 degrees and sleet and snow is mixing with the wind driven rains.
The lack of truely mild, sub-tropical Atlantic air has been the missing property this winter for producing "windstorms" at the UK latitude and the reason for the lack of real "Global Warming induced Windstorms" that Britain has endured regularly and with great force practically winter after winter has been shifted south and the barrel of the gun has been pointed at France and Spain where just last month, windstorm "Xynthia" which screamed into France, Portugal and Spain packing winds gusting to 103 mph in Portugal, 143 mph in Spain and an astonishing 150 mph in France. These winds are at the top of the windscale of European windstorms and like those seen frequently across the British Isles in the warm decades of the late 80s, 90s and early to mid-2000s these Atlantic depressions that become extremely intense are ignited across they cross the Atlantic and often "bomb out" just off or over the British Isles as these system often drag warm, tropical air north, ahead of their fronts and this injection of warm, moist tropical Atlantic air as well as they pull of colder, polar air from the north, often tightens the windfield, increasing windspeed and overall energy release, producing heavier rains, larger sea and ocean swells and ultimately greater damage on land.
Throughout my childhood I, like other young adults that were born in the early 80s have been brought up with a warm world where winters where generally dominated by wet, windy, unsettled winters. There seemed to be a period around the mid to late 90s, where winter storms seemed to roar with greater fury. I remember many great storms by day and by night which roared in, streamed at the house windows, rain would batter at windows and walls, like a bad tempered child not getting their way and trees would shed branches, street lights would rattle back and forth, appearing like, the next big gust would rip it from it's cement embedded foundation, bins would blown down the street and poorly contructed garden sheds would simply lift off the ground and fly through the air until an unfortunate building or person was unfortunate to be in the path of the large airborne missile.
I have seen many objects fly through the air and massive waves get picked up by severe winds.
Though windstorms can occur pretty much anywhere. Hurricanes which are born of warm core properties and are driven by hot ocean water and thermal contrast with height in the atmosphere, the greatest windstorms which cover far greater distances and pack extreme winds across hundreds and even thousands of miles are born at genrally higher latitudes, where the "baroclinic" contrast between warm and cold air masses drive the larger windstorms on earth.
We see great winterstorms in the polar regions which have produced ferocious blizzards, winds of well over hurricane force that can last days, but during the past 30 years of "Global Warming" in which both Pacific and Atlantic Ocean's were warm, we saw stronger winds blow as jet streams intensified through contrast between warmth out of the equator and cold out of the pole. Great Britain over the last 30 years has found itself sitting along side a warm North Atlantic, it's close proximity to the Arctic as well as the very warm water of the Atlantic, has set up a vast thermal contrast zone which has greater intensified the Atlantic jet stream and ultimately intensified the Atlantic storms which form along this jet.
It should be of no surprise that with colder N. Atlantic water surrounding the UK during last summer and fall and the larger, colder air mass covering Europe and much of central Asia has deflected the Atlantic jet stream further south, therefore a much quieter colder winter resulted. My guess is that as the Atlantic cools and we are likely to see in the years ahead a return to a colder than normal North Atlantic (cold AMO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) we may see less windstorms over the UK or at least less frequent or less severe ones. As the Atlantic continued warming through the 90s and a possible peaking in the early 2000s, we also saw some of the greatest windstorms of the last 100 years roar across the UK and Western Europe, this is, I believe closely related to the warming of the Atlantic but this winter may be the first signs of not only a cooling Atlantic and return to a warm AMO but also the reduction in windstorms for the UK's latitude and reduction in wind speeds achieved within these Atlantic windstorms. Is the Med countries ready to enter an era of stronger, more frequent Atlantic storms and colder, snowier winters for the UK....???
Visit the Facebook Fan Page for additional information, photos and global weather news here: Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan and become a fan!
COLDER WINTER AND NO SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR HAS KEPT THE WINDSTORMS ROARING OVER THE IBERIAN PENN THIS WINTER SEASON, BUT TRANSITION TOWARDS SUMMER HAS TRANSPORTED THE AVENUE OF STORMINESS "NOW OVER THE UNITED KINGDOM" ON IT'S JOURNEY TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NOW THE THERMAL CONTRAST AND BAROCLINIC PROPERTIES ARE IN PLACE FOR A STORMY MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY....
After a high of 42 degrees and dry afternoon, the winds have picked up and heavy rains have returned, driven aboard freshening east winds and a temperature that's continuing to fall through the 30s. After 39 just 2 and a half hours ago, we're now down to 34 degrees and sleet and snow is mixing with the wind driven rains.
The lack of truely mild, sub-tropical Atlantic air has been the missing property this winter for producing "windstorms" at the UK latitude and the reason for the lack of real "Global Warming induced Windstorms" that Britain has endured regularly and with great force practically winter after winter has been shifted south and the barrel of the gun has been pointed at France and Spain where just last month, windstorm "Xynthia" which screamed into France, Portugal and Spain packing winds gusting to 103 mph in Portugal, 143 mph in Spain and an astonishing 150 mph in France. These winds are at the top of the windscale of European windstorms and like those seen frequently across the British Isles in the warm decades of the late 80s, 90s and early to mid-2000s these Atlantic depressions that become extremely intense are ignited across they cross the Atlantic and often "bomb out" just off or over the British Isles as these system often drag warm, tropical air north, ahead of their fronts and this injection of warm, moist tropical Atlantic air as well as they pull of colder, polar air from the north, often tightens the windfield, increasing windspeed and overall energy release, producing heavier rains, larger sea and ocean swells and ultimately greater damage on land.
Throughout my childhood I, like other young adults that were born in the early 80s have been brought up with a warm world where winters where generally dominated by wet, windy, unsettled winters. There seemed to be a period around the mid to late 90s, where winter storms seemed to roar with greater fury. I remember many great storms by day and by night which roared in, streamed at the house windows, rain would batter at windows and walls, like a bad tempered child not getting their way and trees would shed branches, street lights would rattle back and forth, appearing like, the next big gust would rip it from it's cement embedded foundation, bins would blown down the street and poorly contructed garden sheds would simply lift off the ground and fly through the air until an unfortunate building or person was unfortunate to be in the path of the large airborne missile.
I have seen many objects fly through the air and massive waves get picked up by severe winds.
Though windstorms can occur pretty much anywhere. Hurricanes which are born of warm core properties and are driven by hot ocean water and thermal contrast with height in the atmosphere, the greatest windstorms which cover far greater distances and pack extreme winds across hundreds and even thousands of miles are born at genrally higher latitudes, where the "baroclinic" contrast between warm and cold air masses drive the larger windstorms on earth.
We see great winterstorms in the polar regions which have produced ferocious blizzards, winds of well over hurricane force that can last days, but during the past 30 years of "Global Warming" in which both Pacific and Atlantic Ocean's were warm, we saw stronger winds blow as jet streams intensified through contrast between warmth out of the equator and cold out of the pole. Great Britain over the last 30 years has found itself sitting along side a warm North Atlantic, it's close proximity to the Arctic as well as the very warm water of the Atlantic, has set up a vast thermal contrast zone which has greater intensified the Atlantic jet stream and ultimately intensified the Atlantic storms which form along this jet.
It should be of no surprise that with colder N. Atlantic water surrounding the UK during last summer and fall and the larger, colder air mass covering Europe and much of central Asia has deflected the Atlantic jet stream further south, therefore a much quieter colder winter resulted. My guess is that as the Atlantic cools and we are likely to see in the years ahead a return to a colder than normal North Atlantic (cold AMO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) we may see less windstorms over the UK or at least less frequent or less severe ones. As the Atlantic continued warming through the 90s and a possible peaking in the early 2000s, we also saw some of the greatest windstorms of the last 100 years roar across the UK and Western Europe, this is, I believe closely related to the warming of the Atlantic but this winter may be the first signs of not only a cooling Atlantic and return to a warm AMO but also the reduction in windstorms for the UK's latitude and reduction in wind speeds achieved within these Atlantic windstorms. Is the Med countries ready to enter an era of stronger, more frequent Atlantic storms and colder, snowier winters for the UK....???
Visit the Facebook Fan Page for additional information, photos and global weather news here: Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan and become a fan!
Thursday, 18 March 2010
The mystery deepens — where did that decline go?
Check out this interesting piece that I noticed on www.climatedepot.com
Frank Lansner has done some excellent follow-up on the missing “decline” in temperatures from 1940 to 1975, and things get even more interesting. Recall that the original “hide the decline” statement comes from the ClimateGate emails and refers to “hiding” the tree ring data that shows a decline in temperatures after 1960. It’s known as the “divergence problem” because tree rings diverge from the measured temperatures. But Frank shows that the peer reviewed data supports the original graphs and that measured temperature did decline from 1960 onwards, sharply. But in the GISS version of that time-period, temperatures from the cold 1970’s period were repeatedly “adjusted” years after the event, and progressively got warmer.
The most mysterious period is from 1958 to 1978, when a steep 0.3C decline was initially recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. Years later that was reduced so far it became a mild warming, against the detailed corroborating evidence from raobcore data. Raobcore measurements are balloon measures, how accurate are they? They started in 1958, twenty years before satellites (which are renown for their efficient reliability). Put the two different methods side by side and they tie together very neatly–telling us that both of them are accurate, reliable tools.
The most mysterious period is from 1958 to 1978, when a steep 0.3C decline was initially recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. Years later that was reduced so far it became a mild warming, against the detailed corroborating evidence from raobcore data. Raobcore measurements are balloon measures, how accurate are they? They started in 1958, twenty years before satellites (which are renown for their efficient reliability). Put the two different methods side by side and they tie together very neatly–telling us that both of them are accurate, reliable tools.
Read the rest here: http://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/the-mystery-deepens-where-did-that-decline-go/
Become a Fan today of the NEW Facebook Fan Page for "Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan"
Sunday, 7 March 2010
"Probabilistic" forecasting will and is failing more and more
Whilst watching a youtube video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm25CJo7Cm8&feature=related) regarding the Met Office winter forecast which clearly stated a mild winter or greater chance than not of a mild winter, when those who represent the Met Office and state their forecast was still stating 30% of a colder than normal winter, their clutching at straws im affraid.
The Met Office and NOAA both go purely by their super mathmatical models which appear to be driving the bandwagon of global warming and rides on a 30-year average which by the way is a 30 years of global warming but NOT made-made nor unusual when looking at the longer term cycle of earth's climate.... ALWAYS REMEMBER satalitte data which is the best source at measuring earth's temperature has only been around for 30 years, therefore the data from before that period can be simply manipulated and transfered onto paper making us all or those who don't look deeper into the global warming theory against historical reality believe we are unprecidentally warming and out of control because of vital CO2 which is needed for life on earth.
The intelligent folk of the Met Office, NOAA and other scientific groups don't seem to want to look at past "warm periods" on our earth that BTW were WARMER than what we have just seen since 1979 when the last cold phase came to an end.
The Met Office Director of Operations stated in the news interview that the Met Office forecasted "very accurately" the snow and cold period ahead. Well that is like me looking at a 5-day forecast on the BBC website or on the news and saying it's going to snow on Tuesday and then when it arrives say, see I told you it would snow. It's not difficult these days to forecast 4-7 days out of a cooling down and snow when there are modeling out there that shows these short term changes very well!
In an age which I strongly believe is turning colder once again for the next 30 year period, the method of seeing warmer and warmer weather will always result in egg on the face on those promoting a warming world simply because the evidence is all around that earths temperature is not warming but quite the opposite and has been for roughly 10 years.
Probability forecasting is very much "covering yourself from all angles". Forecast say 70% warm and 30% cold, well even if it ends cold but I truely forecasted "warm", well there was still 30% in there for cold, so that means we were correct, no I'm affraid it doesn't, like ive said, this is a cop out and very misleading to the public. It's tricking us into a false sense of security and cheating us from the truth of what's going on...
Rather than forecasting in a style where you look at global patterns, such as what the ENSO status and where it may be heading a month or 6 months down the road, what's the Atlantic or Pacific temperatures currently at and where are the warm/cool pools set up. Where are the wet and dry zones and ridge/trough positions and what are they telling us as well as of course what the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation is doing and what are the modeling saying they will do?...
Saying there's a certain percentage of warm or cold is I'm affrid to say a complete cop out and the Met Office as well as NOAA which really work hand in hand especially when it comes to global warming, is very much driven by a warm bias in their models, which will and is starting to fail as our earth is showing all signs of a return to a colder generation.
The sun is the key driver and this drives the second key to earth's temperature balance, the oceans..
Why does a person who has only studied weather and climate for as little as 10 years and has no professional backdrop to the subject beat the Met Office who are one of the best if not thee best meteorological group in the world so easily?
I forecasted clearly and without percentage or other numerical probability that a major turn to cold would occur during the second half of December 2009 after a warm, wet and windy November... I stated that we could have a memorable and historic winter..
This of course did occur. What did I base my simplistic forecast on? What is already there, what has happened before when one, two or three ingredients are in place and what El Ninos, what cold Pacific verses warm Atlantic ocean temperature feedback to the atmosphere can do over the UK as well as closely taking into consideration the fact that the low solar activity could result in the "perfect winter for Britain". A modest El Nino centered over the central Pacific, a low solar cycle and the early deep cold wave in October as well as a very wet autumn all pointed to a high potential signal for a cold to potentially historic winter.
So what's driving the global warming theory and what has the government got to do with all this?
Well for those who aren't aware of this, the Met Office and NOAA are government owned and basically run by the goverment, afterall they fund the technology and pay the wages. So, to have "global warming" which is growing worse and with their power with global media, by promoting "global warming" to which it will ultimately destroy and end our world, it is bullying us and presenting fear which is making us dig into our pockets, money which we can't afford to throw away, to pay into things that we A) don't understand and B) aren't questioning because we automatically watch their stunning seemingly unflawless presentation as to what's going to happen. By scaring us then changing laws which force higher taxes etc, they gain to make billions and even trillions off a frighened public so it's a major scam in which the government is using to make more money. Afterall the prove is in taxing and further taxing products in which we suffer but do we see these politicians suffering, are they having pay cuts? No their earnings are rising thanks to us believing what they say, therefore it's up to use to educate ourselves and then speak up... Otherwise we will be doomed by made-made disaster theories for pure greed and nothing else.
What happens when cooling begins and we have a brutal cold and snowy winter? whispers from a silenced room cry global warming is the cause to the cooling and increase in water vapor and snow etc, ... of course! But, wait for it... when there's a heatwave this summer, the party will bgins and shouts from the mountaintops will cry global warming....
All these comments are based on my own personal opinion and we all have the freedom to voice our opinions.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark Vogan
The Met Office and NOAA both go purely by their super mathmatical models which appear to be driving the bandwagon of global warming and rides on a 30-year average which by the way is a 30 years of global warming but NOT made-made nor unusual when looking at the longer term cycle of earth's climate.... ALWAYS REMEMBER satalitte data which is the best source at measuring earth's temperature has only been around for 30 years, therefore the data from before that period can be simply manipulated and transfered onto paper making us all or those who don't look deeper into the global warming theory against historical reality believe we are unprecidentally warming and out of control because of vital CO2 which is needed for life on earth.
The intelligent folk of the Met Office, NOAA and other scientific groups don't seem to want to look at past "warm periods" on our earth that BTW were WARMER than what we have just seen since 1979 when the last cold phase came to an end.
The Met Office Director of Operations stated in the news interview that the Met Office forecasted "very accurately" the snow and cold period ahead. Well that is like me looking at a 5-day forecast on the BBC website or on the news and saying it's going to snow on Tuesday and then when it arrives say, see I told you it would snow. It's not difficult these days to forecast 4-7 days out of a cooling down and snow when there are modeling out there that shows these short term changes very well!
In an age which I strongly believe is turning colder once again for the next 30 year period, the method of seeing warmer and warmer weather will always result in egg on the face on those promoting a warming world simply because the evidence is all around that earths temperature is not warming but quite the opposite and has been for roughly 10 years.
Probability forecasting is very much "covering yourself from all angles". Forecast say 70% warm and 30% cold, well even if it ends cold but I truely forecasted "warm", well there was still 30% in there for cold, so that means we were correct, no I'm affraid it doesn't, like ive said, this is a cop out and very misleading to the public. It's tricking us into a false sense of security and cheating us from the truth of what's going on...
Rather than forecasting in a style where you look at global patterns, such as what the ENSO status and where it may be heading a month or 6 months down the road, what's the Atlantic or Pacific temperatures currently at and where are the warm/cool pools set up. Where are the wet and dry zones and ridge/trough positions and what are they telling us as well as of course what the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation is doing and what are the modeling saying they will do?...
Saying there's a certain percentage of warm or cold is I'm affrid to say a complete cop out and the Met Office as well as NOAA which really work hand in hand especially when it comes to global warming, is very much driven by a warm bias in their models, which will and is starting to fail as our earth is showing all signs of a return to a colder generation.
The sun is the key driver and this drives the second key to earth's temperature balance, the oceans..
Why does a person who has only studied weather and climate for as little as 10 years and has no professional backdrop to the subject beat the Met Office who are one of the best if not thee best meteorological group in the world so easily?
I forecasted clearly and without percentage or other numerical probability that a major turn to cold would occur during the second half of December 2009 after a warm, wet and windy November... I stated that we could have a memorable and historic winter..
This of course did occur. What did I base my simplistic forecast on? What is already there, what has happened before when one, two or three ingredients are in place and what El Ninos, what cold Pacific verses warm Atlantic ocean temperature feedback to the atmosphere can do over the UK as well as closely taking into consideration the fact that the low solar activity could result in the "perfect winter for Britain". A modest El Nino centered over the central Pacific, a low solar cycle and the early deep cold wave in October as well as a very wet autumn all pointed to a high potential signal for a cold to potentially historic winter.
So what's driving the global warming theory and what has the government got to do with all this?
Well for those who aren't aware of this, the Met Office and NOAA are government owned and basically run by the goverment, afterall they fund the technology and pay the wages. So, to have "global warming" which is growing worse and with their power with global media, by promoting "global warming" to which it will ultimately destroy and end our world, it is bullying us and presenting fear which is making us dig into our pockets, money which we can't afford to throw away, to pay into things that we A) don't understand and B) aren't questioning because we automatically watch their stunning seemingly unflawless presentation as to what's going to happen. By scaring us then changing laws which force higher taxes etc, they gain to make billions and even trillions off a frighened public so it's a major scam in which the government is using to make more money. Afterall the prove is in taxing and further taxing products in which we suffer but do we see these politicians suffering, are they having pay cuts? No their earnings are rising thanks to us believing what they say, therefore it's up to use to educate ourselves and then speak up... Otherwise we will be doomed by made-made disaster theories for pure greed and nothing else.
What happens when cooling begins and we have a brutal cold and snowy winter? whispers from a silenced room cry global warming is the cause to the cooling and increase in water vapor and snow etc, ... of course! But, wait for it... when there's a heatwave this summer, the party will bgins and shouts from the mountaintops will cry global warming....
All these comments are based on my own personal opinion and we all have the freedom to voice our opinions.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark Vogan
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
