GLOBAL WARMING: TRUTH BEHIND THE SCIENCE

My reasoning for Why Summers have been such a washout? Also what the long-term Future of our Climate may be

2010-04-01T12:32:00.000-07:00

January-Level Cold to Dawn the 2nd morning of April but don't fret, here's some summer theory which may lift your winter blues...

Note Aviemore's expected low tonight!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/365

EXTRA WARM WATERS SURROUNDING GREAT BRITAIN MAY HAVE BEEN A NEGATIVE TO US DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, POSITIVE IF YOU LIKE A WARM WINTER.... BUT THINGS MAY CHANGE THIS SUMMER AHEAD...

It's understandable that if the Pacific is warm and Atlantic is warm, your going to warm the continents in between... We have seen WELL ABOVE normal water temperatures over the past 10 years, but generally waters have been above normal since the turn to global warming back at the commencement of the 1980s, the early to mid 2000s has seen probably some of the greatest above normal water temperatures around Britain and this has ultimately produced warmer winters and fed Atlantic low's which have produced wetter, windier conditions, but also wetter summers also.

A warmer ocean or sea surrounding a small island like Great Britain will increase water vapor to the atmosphere, when you get a pattern which sends those Atlantic depressions our way, it's very possible, that warmer water surrounding us will feed energy into storm system and increase both it's energy and more importantly, it's amount of rainfall it can produce.

2007 through 2009 have been epic wet, dreary summers, particularly for Scotland where the jet stream has stubbornly ran over us, England tends to be just far enough south to experience slightly drier and warmer summers as continental warmth can reach southern England more efficiently than further north. Although last summer was still milder than "average". It was mild, through the rainy days and because the overall picture was of a warmer rather than a cooler one... That has been the way for years now and the "warmer than normal summer" was deceptive.

So, a warmer Atlantic over the last 3 years I believe has INCREASED our summer precipitation but what happens when that same water surrounding us COOLS which it has done, thanks to a cold winter, WE REALLY NEEDED A NICE LONG-LIVED COLD WINTER to drive those abnormally warm NE Atlantic waters down and this may be what we need in order to snap the pattern we have found ourselves in since 2007 began AFTER a warmer, drier summer in 2006...

Many reactions occur when major drivers switch or flip. The major Atlantic driver such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has major influence on particularly winter in Western Europe and eastern North America but also plays a role in an either settled or unsettled summer pattern the AO (Arctic Oscillation) also can influence summer, but less so, and likely the biggest and certainly larger scale influence is that of the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean which feeds back to the GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE and can alter the mean ridge trough pattern across the globe depending on whether there's an El Nino and La Nina in effect, of course these work with other drivers to produce the overall weather pattern. The El Nino of this past winter, combined with possibly a higher concentration of High-Latitude Volcanic Activity is the possible cause of major "Blocking" which meant the worst of the cold over the Arctic was delivered and stationed over Western and Central Europe and the heart of central and northern Asia...

Ocean and Atmosphere play in harmony and this summer, the collapsing El Nino which warmed the overall temperature of the earth (believe that or not) and this combined with cooler waters surrounding the UK, "should" mean a break from the washout years between 2007 and 2009. After this El Nino goes, a La Nina will develop and we are likely to see a rapid fall in earth's temperature over the next two to three years, what that will mean for UK long-term weather remains to be seen. Next winter already appears to look LESS HARSH than this winter because we won't have the El Nino which tends to help a colder UK/western Europe winter and also waters may likely rebound as a warmer summer, dominated by High Pressure, gradually heats up our surrounding waters once again, BUT it doesn't mean a cold winter won't happen next year, I just feel we may have a slight rebound but could well still have a "below normal winter" temperature-wise as our overall temperatures is gradually falling again year by year. I just don't not quite see a repeat of 2009-10 for the UK.. The AMO is still warm and other pattern drivers will be in control by 2010-2011. Perhaps we see a less overall cold winter but a period of cold which re-writes the history books or produces bigger snows... A la Nina will dominate the cold pools, distributing the cold pools differently and even the NAO and AO will likely have changes up their sleave from this year. No year is the same.. (I wouldn't be surprised if much of the US and Canada saw an EXTREMELY SEVERE AND LONG WINTER next year with La Nina coming on. Though winter 2010-11 may be as bad as this year in the UK, we should have a colder overall earth, so we will need to wait and see what.

AN INCREASE IN VOLCANIC ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE THE COOL DOWN OF THE PLANET...

That all being said, of we happen to see a further rise in Arctic volcanic activity, then we might see this type of winter we just had sooner rather than a few years down the road. Whilst this winter was certainly severe and long, I have deemed this one "average" when compared to those batch of winter during the heart of the last cold period from the start of the 50s through the 70s.. It has been severe when comparing with the last 30 winters in which global warming and a warmer than normal Atlantic and Pacific have been warming the overall temperatyre of earth and therefore taking an edge off winters globally. This past winter may be a sign of the AMO flip to cold and that means a gradual cooling of UK winters look likely, it won't be a sudden return to the ice age but more a step down year by year. One winter that's very cold may be followed by a less cold winter, but just not as warm as previous ones... then a colder winter again... you get what I mean?? Evetually the Atlantic will be cold and both Pacific and Atlantic should have a period of several years were their both cold and therefore a series of years should display brutal winters. What must be considered though is that if the solar cycle continues to fall away and this meets head to head with some major Arctic Volcanic eruptions, worse winters than those of the 50s, 60s and 70s may happen. Believe me, we should all be concerned if winters in the era between 1700 and 1900 return... Those kinds of winters would make the past winter the a stroll in the park....

Appologies for this rather long-winded post, I didn't intend on writing quite as much as I have done...

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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Worst Winter Since the Fact and Fiction of Global Warming Began, 30 years ago!

2010-03-31T12:45:00.000-07:00

Northbound on the M74, March 31, 2010

A CRUEL END TO A CRUEL WINTER, BUT DOES THIS WINTER COMPETE WITH THOSE OUTSIDE OF THE 30 YEARS OF GLOBAL WARMING??

- By Mark Vogan

Yes, this winter is worst since 1978-79 for all of Britain. Yes, that's a significant time frame in which we haven't seen a winter anything like the one we're STILL enduring as of the final day of March, when the clocks have went forward and it's supposedly "British Summertime"...

However, that winter (78-79) was at the close of the last cold period, since then we have been warming up until probably the late 90s and then a turn took place in which sent earth's temperatures falling once again.. My question is, how does this compare to those brital winters BEFORE the whole Global Warming thing kicked in? Scotland has seen it's worst winter since 1962-63, which tells me that this winter is a little more significant because, that tells me that this winter has been worse than many within the last cold period, however. The 62-63 winter was far far worse and winters prior to 62-63 were worse than even that.

I believe that this winter wasn't as bad as 62-63 and there was much more severe winters prior to 62-63. In terms of comparing the very worst winters EVER and I', talking those in centuries gone by when it was the little ice age, this would be considered "mild" and during the previous cold period, this would have been an "average" winter overall. What's interesting to me is that though there were warm episodes within an overall cold dominated winter, there was very little moderation in both cold and snow within the Highlands of Scotland and as an actual fact, the winter of 09-10 is considered the coldest on record for the Highlands and this likely puts Scotland's winter rankings back to 62-63...

It has been a long, cold and tiring winter, probably more for the fact I have been driving a truck through it all winter and even today, March 31st, I drove through heavy, windblown snow, which covered the roads.... You don't really expect that when it's April tomorrow...

I do believe that over the next 20 years, we will see a winter worse than 09-10, but I will say, this winter will be a tough one to beat... but it will happen whether it's next year or 15 years from now.

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Mark Vogan's Preliminary United Kingdom Summer Forecast 2010

2010-03-31T09:51:00.000-07:00

A WARMER, DRIER, BRIGHTER SUMMER LIKELY THIS YEAR, Despite Britain suffering through it's Coldest Winter in Decades and the past 3 summers being a washout.....

Despite a long, tiring winter dealing with snow, ice and cold, I have reasons to believe that this upcoming summer season could prove to become the warmest, driest in several years after 3 straight "Washouts".

Read Full Forecast here:http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2010/03/mark-vogans-preliminary-united-kingdom.html

Mark Vogan's UK Summer Forecast to Be Released Tomorrow (Wed, March 31, 2010)

2010-03-30T12:42:00.000-07:00

Click on here http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/ to see Mark Vogan's UK Preliminary Forecast for Summer 2010.... which will be released at 5pm GMT Wednesday, March 31, 2010.

If you haven't already, click onto the "Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan" Facebook page and become a fan!

-M.V.

ARE WE ENDING AN ERA OF FREQUENT AND INTENSE WINTER WINDSTORMS IN THE UK?

2010-03-29T13:27:00.000-07:00

By Mark Vogan

COLDER WINTER AND NO SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIR HAS KEPT THE WINDSTORMS ROARING OVER THE IBERIAN PENN THIS WINTER SEASON, BUT TRANSITION TOWARDS SUMMER HAS TRANSPORTED THE AVENUE OF STORMINESS "NOW OVER THE UNITED KINGDOM" ON IT'S JOURNEY TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NOW THE THERMAL CONTRAST AND BAROCLINIC PROPERTIES ARE IN PLACE FOR A STORMY MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY....

After a high of 42 degrees and dry afternoon, the winds have picked up and heavy rains have returned, driven aboard freshening east winds and a temperature that's continuing to fall through the 30s. After 39 just 2 and a half hours ago, we're now down to 34 degrees and sleet and snow is mixing with the wind driven rains.

The lack of truely mild, sub-tropical Atlantic air has been the missing property this winter for producing "windstorms" at the UK latitude and the reason for the lack of real "Global Warming induced Windstorms" that Britain has endured regularly and with great force practically winter after winter has been shifted south and the barrel of the gun has been pointed at France and Spain where just last month, windstorm "Xynthia" which screamed into France, Portugal and Spain packing winds gusting to 103 mph in Portugal, 143 mph in Spain and an astonishing 150 mph in France. These winds are at the top of the windscale of European windstorms and like those seen frequently across the British Isles in the warm decades of the late 80s, 90s and early to mid-2000s these Atlantic depressions that become extremely intense are ignited across they cross the Atlantic and often "bomb out" just off or over the British Isles as these system often drag warm, tropical air north, ahead of their fronts and this injection of warm, moist tropical Atlantic air as well as they pull of colder, polar air from the north, often tightens the windfield, increasing windspeed and overall energy release, producing heavier rains, larger sea and ocean swells and ultimately greater damage on land.

Throughout my childhood I, like other young adults that were born in the early 80s have been brought up with a warm world where winters where generally dominated by wet, windy, unsettled winters. There seemed to be a period around the mid to late 90s, where winter storms seemed to roar with greater fury. I remember many great storms by day and by night which roared in, streamed at the house windows, rain would batter at windows and walls, like a bad tempered child not getting their way and trees would shed branches, street lights would rattle back and forth, appearing like, the next big gust would rip it from it's cement embedded foundation, bins would blown down the street and poorly contructed garden sheds would simply lift off the ground and fly through the air until an unfortunate building or person was unfortunate to be in the path of the large airborne missile.

I have seen many objects fly through the air and massive waves get picked up by severe winds.

Though windstorms can occur pretty much anywhere. Hurricanes which are born of warm core properties and are driven by hot ocean water and thermal contrast with height in the atmosphere, the greatest windstorms which cover far greater distances and pack extreme winds across hundreds and even thousands of miles are born at genrally higher latitudes, where the "baroclinic" contrast between warm and cold air masses drive the larger windstorms on earth.

We see great winterstorms in the polar regions which have produced ferocious blizzards, winds of well over hurricane force that can last days, but during the past 30 years of "Global Warming" in which both Pacific and Atlantic Ocean's were warm, we saw stronger winds blow as jet streams intensified through contrast between warmth out of the equator and cold out of the pole. Great Britain over the last 30 years has found itself sitting along side a warm North Atlantic, it's close proximity to the Arctic as well as the very warm water of the Atlantic, has set up a vast thermal contrast zone which has greater intensified the Atlantic jet stream and ultimately intensified the Atlantic storms which form along this jet.

It should be of no surprise that with colder N. Atlantic water surrounding the UK during last summer and fall and the larger, colder air mass covering Europe and much of central Asia has deflected the Atlantic jet stream further south, therefore a much quieter colder winter resulted. My guess is that as the Atlantic cools and we are likely to see in the years ahead a return to a colder than normal North Atlantic (cold AMO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) we may see less windstorms over the UK or at least less frequent or less severe ones. As the Atlantic continued warming through the 90s and a possible peaking in the early 2000s, we also saw some of the greatest windstorms of the last 100 years roar across the UK and Western Europe, this is, I believe closely related to the warming of the Atlantic but this winter may be the first signs of not only a cooling Atlantic and return to a warm AMO but also the reduction in windstorms for the UK's latitude and reduction in wind speeds achieved within these Atlantic windstorms. Is the Med countries ready to enter an era of stronger, more frequent Atlantic storms and colder, snowier winters for the UK....???

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The mystery deepens — where did that decline go?

2010-03-18T09:57:00.000-07:00

Check out this interesting piece that I noticed on www.climatedepot.com

Frank Lansner has done some excellent follow-up on the missing “decline” in temperatures from 1940 to 1975, and things get even more interesting. Recall that the original “hide the decline” statement comes from the ClimateGate emails and refers to “hiding” the tree ring data that shows a decline in temperatures after 1960. It’s known as the “divergence problem” because tree rings diverge from the measured temperatures. But Frank shows that the peer reviewed data supports the original graphs and that measured temperature did decline from 1960 onwards, sharply. But in the GISS version of that time-period, temperatures from the cold 1970’s period were repeatedly “adjusted” years after the event, and progressively got warmer.
The most mysterious period is from 1958 to 1978, when a steep 0.3C decline was initially recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. Years later that was reduced so far it became a mild warming, against the detailed corroborating evidence from raobcore data. Raobcore measurements are balloon measures, how accurate are they? They started in 1958, twenty years before satellites (which are renown for their efficient reliability). Put the two different methods side by side and they tie together very neatly–telling us that both of them are accurate, reliable tools.

Read the rest here: http://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/the-mystery-deepens-where-did-that-decline-go/

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"Probabilistic" forecasting will and is failing more and more

2010-03-07T12:29:00.000-08:00

Whilst watching a youtube video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm25CJo7Cm8&feature=related) regarding the Met Office winter forecast which clearly stated a mild winter or greater chance than not of a mild winter, when those who represent the Met Office and state their forecast was still stating 30% of a colder than normal winter, their clutching at straws im affraid.

The Met Office and NOAA both go purely by their super mathmatical models which appear to be driving the bandwagon of global warming and rides on a 30-year average which by the way is a 30 years of global warming but NOT made-made nor unusual when looking at the longer term cycle of earth's climate.... ALWAYS REMEMBER satalitte data which is the best source at measuring earth's temperature has only been around for 30 years, therefore the data from before that period can be simply manipulated and transfered onto paper making us all or those who don't look deeper into the global warming theory against historical reality believe we are unprecidentally warming and out of control because of vital CO2 which is needed for life on earth.

The intelligent folk of the Met Office, NOAA and other scientific groups don't seem to want to look at past "warm periods" on our earth that BTW were WARMER than what we have just seen since 1979 when the last cold phase came to an end.

The Met Office Director of Operations stated in the news interview that the Met Office forecasted "very accurately" the snow and cold period ahead. Well that is like me looking at a 5-day forecast on the BBC website or on the news and saying it's going to snow on Tuesday and then when it arrives say, see I told you it would snow. It's not difficult these days to forecast 4-7 days out of a cooling down and snow when there are modeling out there that shows these short term changes very well!

In an age which I strongly believe is turning colder once again for the next 30 year period, the method of seeing warmer and warmer weather will always result in egg on the face on those promoting a warming world simply because the evidence is all around that earths temperature is not warming but quite the opposite and has been for roughly 10 years.

Probability forecasting is very much "covering yourself from all angles". Forecast say 70% warm and 30% cold, well even if it ends cold but I truely forecasted "warm", well there was still 30% in there for cold, so that means we were correct, no I'm affraid it doesn't, like ive said, this is a cop out and very misleading to the public. It's tricking us into a false sense of security and cheating us from the truth of what's going on...

Rather than forecasting in a style where you look at global patterns, such as what the ENSO status and where it may be heading a month or 6 months down the road, what's the Atlantic or Pacific temperatures currently at and where are the warm/cool pools set up. Where are the wet and dry zones and ridge/trough positions and what are they telling us as well as of course what the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation is doing and what are the modeling saying they will do?...

Saying there's a certain percentage of warm or cold is I'm affrid to say a complete cop out and the Met Office as well as NOAA which really work hand in hand especially when it comes to global warming, is very much driven by a warm bias in their models, which will and is starting to fail as our earth is showing all signs of a return to a colder generation.

The sun is the key driver and this drives the second key to earth's temperature balance, the oceans..

Why does a person who has only studied weather and climate for as little as 10 years and has no professional backdrop to the subject beat the Met Office who are one of the best if not thee best meteorological group in the world so easily?

I forecasted clearly and without percentage or other numerical probability that a major turn to cold would occur during the second half of December 2009 after a warm, wet and windy November... I stated that we could have a memorable and historic winter..

This of course did occur. What did I base my simplistic forecast on? What is already there, what has happened before when one, two or three ingredients are in place and what El Ninos, what cold Pacific verses warm Atlantic ocean temperature feedback to the atmosphere can do over the UK as well as closely taking into consideration the fact that the low solar activity could result in the "perfect winter for Britain". A modest El Nino centered over the central Pacific, a low solar cycle and the early deep cold wave in October as well as a very wet autumn all pointed to a high potential signal for a cold to potentially historic winter.

So what's driving the global warming theory and what has the government got to do with all this?

Well for those who aren't aware of this, the Met Office and NOAA are government owned and basically run by the goverment, afterall they fund the technology and pay the wages. So, to have "global warming" which is growing worse and with their power with global media, by promoting "global warming" to which it will ultimately destroy and end our world, it is bullying us and presenting fear which is making us dig into our pockets, money which we can't afford to throw away, to pay into things that we A) don't understand and B) aren't questioning because we automatically watch their stunning seemingly unflawless presentation as to what's going to happen. By scaring us then changing laws which force higher taxes etc, they gain to make billions and even trillions off a frighened public so it's a major scam in which the government is using to make more money. Afterall the prove is in taxing and further taxing products in which we suffer but do we see these politicians suffering, are they having pay cuts? No their earnings are rising thanks to us believing what they say, therefore it's up to use to educate ourselves and then speak up... Otherwise we will be doomed by made-made disaster theories for pure greed and nothing else.

What happens when cooling begins and we have a brutal cold and snowy winter? whispers from a silenced room cry global warming is the cause to the cooling and increase in water vapor and snow etc, ... of course! But, wait for it... when there's a heatwave this summer, the party will bgins and shouts from the mountaintops will cry global warming....

All these comments are based on my own personal opinion and we all have the freedom to voice our opinions.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark Vogan

NEW ARTICLE: WHY SEATHWAITE FARM, CUMBRIA SETS NEW BRITTISH RAINFALL BENCHMARK

2009-11-22T09:18:00.000-08:00

Here's an article explains what was invloved in creating "the perfect rainstorm".

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/11/seathwaite-farm-cumbria-records.html

Thanks for reading.

-Mark Vogan

Is Britain's rainfall frequency becoming more intense?

2009-11-04T11:46:00.000-08:00

- By Mark Vogan

I don't know if it's my imagination, perhaps as I grow in my meteorological mind or I'm just paying more attention to the weather here, but is our rainfall frequency becoming more regular and more importantly, more intense.. It seems extreme precipitation events are becoming more regular. The floods of 07, the 2007 and 2008 summer rains, the wet and windy winters, particularly January 2007 which was a bad month of precipitation and wind energy..

I wrote a post already regarding my belief that summer rainfall is becoming greater as the earth or if the earth is cooling. Cooling the NET TEMPERATURE OF EARTH would release greater amounts of water vapor from the oceans into the atmosphere, therefore INCREASING PRECIPITATION. Summer 2008 brought floods to the UK. This summer we have seen more floods and August-September-October and even now into early November, we have seen floods that in some places across the country, lifelong residents have never seen before.

Many will label this possible increase in rainfall as a result of global warming, I put this down to a cooling ocean that feeds to increased water vapor in the atmosphere, that's if there is any relationship whatsoever.

Northern Ireland has appeared to have had an increase in "extreme rainfall events" with the downpour out of the blue which stopped a soccer match dead after 16 minutes that went from a perfect day for football under good conditions, to a pitch that was waterlogged!

The "Boscastle flood", the York, Carlisle, Glasgow etc etc floods seem to becoming more common and of greater frequency. Yes I am being cautious as many would shout for AGW straight away. Yes I also agree that these events can't be linked straight to global cooling, just in the same way they can't be linked to global warming, but with increased early season and late season snowfall as well as an apparent increase in snowfall in many places during the winter months, I just wonder whether precipitation annually is both linked and on the increase?

Thanks for reading.

Please email me at superior37@hotmail.com

Unable to post today!

2009-11-02T12:03:00.000-08:00

Due to work commitments I have been unable to post today but please bare with me.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Full US Forecast to be released today here

2009-11-01T23:08:00.000-08:00

Until them, you can see the first draft on my other blog!!

-Mark Vogan

The Met Office and NOAA are on a sinking ship

2009-10-27T02:57:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

The UK Met Office, NOAA and other major entities that once held pride and respect appear to be on a "sinking ship", the question is, when does the ship their on board sink? Persistent denial of cooling and the constant "new findings" is becoming a little desperate, their mayday calls are becoming fainter and fainter as record lows and record cold high's are starting to drown out shouts of warm as less of the population buy their "theories"..

http://www.care2.com/causes/global-warming/blog/more-americans-believe-in-haunted-houses-than-climate-change/

Going by this new article (linked above) released, more and more people are becoming less convinced of carbon dioxide induced global warming and I for one am getting tired of seeing and hearing these people come out regularly with their "forecasts" of warm, dry summers and warm winters with less snow and less cold, as well as these heart tapping commercials about how our childrens future are in jeapordy because of global warming!. IT'S FAKE..

When will their ship sink? How long will all this go on for? When we're shivering the world over with record snow and ice cover and thousands die because of cold..

I can just picture Al Gore, Pres. Obama and others standing outside the White House in January 2009 or 2016 with parkas, face masks and a wind chill of 30 below, saying "WE MUST ACT NOW, OUR WORLD IS WARMING AND WE ARE GOING TO DIE NEXT WEEK BECAUSE A GIANT HEAT WAVE THAT WILL COVER THE WORLD.. OCEAN TEMPS ARE WARMEST EVER IN ALL THE OCEANS"..

All this now is propaganda and nothing to do with the theory "manmade global warming" now and becoming a sceam in which the government and private organisations can take money out of our pockets. IT'S A SCAM and we must stand up and prove that our world is not heading towards a wipeout..

My thoughts on the future are simple. Science will tell us and no manmade computer model that is rigged and pumped into the equation, warm, warm warm will ever hold water. I believe more will stand up and Al Gore and many many others will either drop off and become quiet and sneek off behind the crows or they will be held accountable once they've drained our supplies, government funding. Are we willing to stand back and let these power freaks destroy an already fragile economy or are we willing to stand united and fight back? I for one am not willing to stay silent and this blog is a testament to the truth and freedom for all our future's.

Thanks for reading.

Image Source: http://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/images/view?back=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.images.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3Fp%3Dsinking%2Bship%26b%3D1%26ni%3D20%26ei%3Dutf-8%26pstart%3D1%26fr%3Die8&w=500&h=383&imgurl=static.flickr.com%2F131%2F328981655_d4c06c1532.jpg&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.flickr.com%2Fphotos%2Ftoufeeque%2F328981655%2F&size=123k&name=Tasman+Spirit+si...&p=sinking+ship&oid=ecdcf57ef296ce82&fr2=&fusr=toufeeque&no=12&tt=27467&b=1&ni=20&sigr=11hcf5in7&sigi=11educvmp&sigb=1315cnk3i

Get Prepared as the end is near folks!

2009-10-26T09:39:00.000-07:00

The thing I would like to ask folks is this, when the planet dive bombs into a deep cold period in which we see record snow and ice coverage as well as record cold where people die in vast numbers, what will the Warming alarmists say??

Especially when they have cut all our resources and drained our own bankaccounts and taxes are through the roof to the utter garbage that is

"MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING IS UTTER GARBAGE"

Evidence PROVES the earth is cooling and that is despite the persistent rise of Carbon Dioxide. Change the record and shout at something worth shouting about and something that doesn't jeapordise our children and grand children's future and take money away from good, honest and hard working people...

Get real folks, we're not only failing to see global warming but we're already heading the opposite way.. Stop kidding yourself and others on here..

-Mark Vogan

NOAA's latest!

Changing Arctic Affecting Air, Ocean, and Everything in Between
October 22, 2009

From here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091022_arcticreportcard.html

Despite the fact that summer 2009 had more sea ice than in 2007 or 2008, scientists are seeing drastic changes in the region from just five years ago and at rates faster than anticipated. The findings were presented today in the annual update of the Arctic Report Card, a collaborative effort of 71 national and international scientists.
“The Arctic is a special and fragile place on this planet,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than any other place on Earth — and with wide-ranging consequences. When I visited the northern corners of Alaska’s Arctic region earlier this year, I saw an area abundant with natural resources, diverse wildlife, proud local and native peoples — and a most uncertain future. This year’s Arctic Report Card underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas pollution and adapting to climate changes already under way.”

Among the changes highlighted in the 2009 update to the report card were:

-A change in large scale wind patterns affected by the loss of summer sea ice,
-The replacement of multi-year sea ice by first-year sea ice,
-Warmer and fresher water in the upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas,
-A continued loss of the Greenland ice sheet,
-Less snow in North America and increased runoff in Siberia, and
The effect of the loss of sea ice on Arctic plant, animal, and fish species.

The Arctic Report Card is an annual assessment that was introduced by NOAA’s Climate Program Office in 2006 and is an example of the suite of climate services to which NOAA contributes.
Scientific assessments are key to informing our understanding of climate – how and why it is changing and what the changing conditions mean to lives and livelihoods. The Arctic Report Card established a baseline of conditions in the region at the beginning of the 21st century and the annual updates track and monitor the often quickly-changing conditions in the Arctic. Using a color-coding system of red to indicate consistent evidence of warming and yellow to indicate there are mixed signals about warming from climate indicators and species, the report card is updated annually in October and tracks Arctic data in six categories: atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land, and conditions in Greenland.
“The Arctic we see today is very different from the Arctic we saw even five years ago,” said Jackie Richter-Menge of the USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. and the report’s chief technical editor and contributing author. “It’s a warmer place with less thick and more mobile sea ice, warmer and fresher ocean water, and increased stress on caribou, reindeer, polar bears and walrus in some regions.”
The 2009 update to the report card reflects the contributions of an international team of 71 researchers from countries that include the United States of America, Canada, Belgium, China, Denmark, Japan, The Netherlands, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
The Report Card can be found at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

Unsettled, Mild Pattern setting up for much of Western Europe and the United States.

2009-10-25T10:50:00.000-07:00

Increased precipitation for United States and central Europe as the Atlantic and Pacific jet pops storms on it's flow pump into the West Coast of North America and Europe as the cold collects and Charges over the North Pole.

Atlantic and Pacific Storms to intensify and punch harder to ocean facing coastlines as warm-cold contrast grows and the predominantly zonal jet streams increase in speed as fuel increases thanks to POSITIVE ARCTIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS..

Rest of this story to be released later today! Stay tuned..

DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES I CANNOT POST FULLY THE ARTICLE ABOVE, BUT HERE IS THE LINK TO THE FULL VERSION HERE.
http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/10/november-thoughts-unsettled-mild.html

Thanks for reading.

- Mark Vogan

Where are the Hurricanes, Mr. Gore?

2009-10-23T13:30:00.000-07:00

- By Alan Caruba

That god among men and Nobel Peace Prize winner, Al Gore, told us in “An Inconvenient Truth”, his Oscar-winning documentary, that we had to brace for increasing numbers of hurricanes as the result of global warming.

So, where are the hurricanes of 2009, Mr. Gore?

The hurricane season that runs from June through October is about to end with nothing more than one weak to borderline moderate tropical storm that hit Florida’s panhandle, but there have been NO hurricanes.

Read full article here:
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2009/10/where-are-hurricanes-mr-gore_23.html

Germany reaches coldest October temperature on record!

2009-10-21T12:54:00.000-07:00

All-time October low recorded in Bavaria
Published: 20 Oct 09 16:36
Meteorologists on Tuesday morning recorded the lowest ever October temperature in Germany, as the mercury dipped to a chilly -24.3 degrees Celsius in Bavaria’s Berchtesgaden national park.
Nuremberg's star polar bear Flocke headed to the French Riviera - Society (21 Oct 09)
Taxiing for takeoff at Berlin's Tempelhof - Analysis & Opinion (21 Oct 09)
Bush senior to meet Kohl and Gorby in Berlin - National (21 Oct 09)The bitter cold was measured at the Funtensee, a notoriously frosty lake high in the Bavarian Alps. Jörg Kachelmann from the Meteomedia weather service said conditions overnight were ideal “with brisk cold air flowing in over freshly fallen powder snow.”Kachelmann said the alpine sinkhole could register temperatures as low as -55 degrees in the middle of winter by similar conditions, making it in his estimation the coldest spot in Germany. But he said the Funtensee was likely to be a balmy 35 degrees warmer by Wednesday, as the Alpine Föhn wind is expected to push temperatures up to 10 Celsius.The rest of the country will also warm up slightly midweek, according to the DWD German Weather Service. The Föhn will heat up the southern edge of Germany to 17 degrees, while the eastern half will be lucky to see seven degrees. Most regions will be cloudy, but are likely to stay dry. Overnight lows will drop to six degrees in the northwest to zero in the southeast.The northern and eastern Germany will remain dry on Thursday, but will showers threaten the southwest. Highs will range between nine and 17 degrees.

source: http://www.thelocal.de/society/20091020-22693.html

I NEED YOUR CONTRIBUTION: WINTER FORECAST 2009-10

2009-10-20T12:22:00.000-07:00

A photo I took in February 2008 of Lake Michigan from Chicago shoreline

My Official United States and Europe-UK forecast coming October 31, 2009

Please read this and respond if possible..

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/10/calling-all-europeans-looking-for-your.html

Thanks for reading.

- Mark Vogan

MAY HAVE BEEN THE COLDEST OCTOBER START ON RECORD BUT IT'S READY TO GET WARM ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE

2009-10-19T09:27:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

After a stunning early season display of cold and snow never witnessed this early in living memory. Soon all the cold and snow will be a distant memory as our mid-latitude belt warms as the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation transition to a more comfortable positive mode, a pattern which promises to spread oceanic warmth across both North America and Europe. Places like Great Britain and the lowcountries may be in for a few strong windstorms as Atlantic depressions ride the zonal flow.

However, this warming will last only several weeks I believe before another flip to negative commences perhaps by early to mid-December if not earlier.

Between late October and early December, we may witness much of the USA, southern Canada, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Poland, Denmark and much of Europe WARMER-THAN-NORMAL but this isn't something to get excited about and may have teacherous, shivering consequences down the road to the exact places that enjoy warmth.

When folks walk around Amsterdam, London, even Oslo or from Billings to New York in short sleeves and tell themselves, hum, so much for the onset to a brutal winter, don't smirk too soon..

The Arctic will be using that 6-8 week period to build it's sea ice and cold air. With a record low solar cycle in progress, weak to possibly moderate El Nino, cold Pacific Oscillation with it's horseshoe of cold and a colder than in many years, North Atlantic, all the right ingredients are there for when that NAO and AO flips, it will discharge an Arctic air mass that will send everyones minds away from global warming and straight to the coming of an new ice age...

I believe December through January promises to bring bitter cold and snow to much of the highly populated and industrial strongholds of the planet. Europe, North America and east Asia may see one of their worst displays of winter in the last 50 years!! This event may be unlike 2006 when Alaska and Russia saw one of their worst cold spells in 100 years, will be much more widespread.

Great Britain, must be preoared for widespread snow and extreme cold that their not used to.. Glasgow, Edinburgh and Amsterdam will take a run at records with several days below freezing and nights with snow cover and clear skies, lows will plummet to their lowest levels in the last decade!

Thanks for reading.

Email me at superior37@hotmail.com

Very interesting a very relavent to my article yesterday!!

2009-10-18T12:26:00.000-07:00

Check this out!
http://www.iceagenow.com/2009_Other_Parts_of_the_World.htm

and this..

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm

and this...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/a-cold-start-to-fall-over-4500-new-snowfall-low-temp-and-lowest-max-temp-records-set-in-the-usa-this-last-week/#more-11803

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Is there something in all this early season cold and snow?

2009-10-17T08:21:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

With all the heavy snow falling either out West over Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado or over the Midwest with 4 inches of snow falling at Minneapolis and even the 20% snow cover across America and it's only mid-October, Is there anything more to all this than just a wacky pattern that appears every once in a while?.

I have been amazed at the heavy snow which by the way isn't all that astonishing for mid-October in places like Montana and Wyoming but the astonishment came for me, when I see "highs in the teens" and lows below zero this early. Not to mention the rarity of Billings, Montana recieving "4 straight days below freezing" The fact that Polebridge achieved a nightime low of -13 degrees is remarkable for so early. The previous night saw -11 at Utica, Montana.

Denver is another amazing example of just how cold it's been when they recieved a frigid high of just 26 degrees. This amazes me when you think the high there should be 69 degrees for this time of year!!

Countless records were broken for coldest, so early!

To me, how did we see this event? How unusual really is it? Does this event tell us something about the upcoming winter or perhaps the future of our climate? Is this a sign of a global cooling?

It's significant in the fact that we have now seen records for BOTH SNOW AND COLD from the Rockies to Midwest and Lakes all the way to East with State College, Pa STILL getting snowfall this morning, surpassing the record for earliest 1" snowfall which was October 17th yesterday and the amount of snow accummlated still rises, ranging between 6-10 inches in the area around State College. Their own version of the Buffalo October snow event in 2008.

Europe's central region is getting blasted also by heavy, record breaking snow and cold and yes, like many will point out speedily, we here in Western Europe are enjoying some balmy days as well as Florida getting hit by extreme heat NEVER witnessed before for this late in the year. Check out my other blog here http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/ as I shall post later on Florida's remarkable heat. Like I have stated often recently, with extreme cold and snow, will come extreme heat, as the earth needs to balance and find equilibrium. The only thing is, as science is proving on many levels, the thermostat of earth is getting turned down.

I believe and my major point to this post is, I believe we are seeing an increase in cold and snow EARLIER, more and more records appear to be falling on both sides of the summer season, whether it be late summer arrivals with so called "freak April, May or June snowfalls" or "freak September, October snowfalls". The type of winters that appeared to begin the cycle back in 2007-2008 and perhaps even during the core of 2006-2007 with the extreme flip from warmth in December-January to extreme cold in February-March, there has been a rapid cool down since throughout the year and I see an INCREASE in record snow and cold as well as record or unusual late season snow and cold.

Certainly for the United States and the record Rockies cold and snow of October 2009 and the State College, Pa snow and overall cold across the majority of the US is driven south from Canada. I have stated that I believe Canada may be the first country in the Northern Hemisphere to say goodbye to global warming with cooling summers and rapidly growing colder winters. Major mountain ranges are seeing INCREASED SNOWFALL and this increased snowfall can be a sign of increased water vapor, by cooling down the net temperature of the earth, RAISING the level of water vapor into the global atmosphere as the temperature DECREASES, therefore increasing snowfall, where is most likely to catch the snowfall first? The mountains and there has been clear evidence of this on several continents in BOTH hemispheres!

Yes, you may say, oh but Mark, it's only a section of Montana, or Pennsylvania, the Scottish Highlands or the Austrian Alps, BUT from small things come greater things and I personally believe the margain is growing wider and the areas seeing this earlier occurance of snow and colder temperatures is growing.

A perfact summertime example of earths atmosphere being colder than usual, is the fact that snows were falling and ski areas remained opened year round in 2008 in the Alps of Europe. It snowed in the Colorado Rockies in July 2009!

Ice stayed on Hudson Bay longer than normal as well as less Arctic Sea Ice melt this summer. Countless records were broken for not warm, but cool throughout the summer of 2009 and I saw less heat waves globally this year than previous, recent summers. Sure, we have seen record heat this summer in areas including South Texas, the Pacific Northwest, parts of Mediterannean Europe, Africa and Australasia, but it's been more within the typical hot areas, the only exception is western North America, but that was primarily because of just how cold of an air mass there was further east of where the record heat set up. Drop a boulder into a stream, the water flows AROUND that boulder, like a pool of cold air in the atmosphere, the warmer air flows around it. Also the air will flow faster, creating increased heat. Like wind blowing through buildings, wind increases as the space decreases, same with high pressure, the less room high pressure gets, the hotter the air becomes through friction, compression and increasing atmospheric pressures with no room for it to flow.

We are likely seeing this record hot October in Florida because of a counter reaction to how cold the atmosphere is across the vast majority of North America, the typical northward migration of mild air in October which normally covers the USA still, even now, is squashed by very cold air that's dominated the overall picture throughout this past summer and was eastoblished a few years ago thanks in part to the La Nina of 2008. Same for here in Western Europe, the vast pool of cold air driving into the European Alps is redircting the warmth towards Britain and the low countries of Western Europe. There is still plenty of warm air around, it must go somewhere and if it can't, you then see record heat develop as well as unusual warmth in unusual places.

The large reaction to the Nina of 2008 is playing a role is the large-scale pattern that's established now and is very dominant and will likely play a major role in this upcoming winter which I believe will be a real shocker to millions across the world.

In the Midwest and Northern Plains of the United States for example, the winter of 2007-2008 was a much cooler, snowier (record snowy) winter and a shocker to many who enjoyed mild winters therefor a few consecutive years, then came winter 2008-2009 which brought back old time feelings with a longer, colder, snowier winter from the Rockies to Ohio Valley. The trend between 2007-08 and 2008-09 was that basically a strong corridor of cold SHIFTED east and this year with other parameters in place and with the trend between last spring and present day, points to that same corridor of cold now aimed directly between north central Canada and the East Coast of the USA.

These early and late cold/snow episodes are nothing to sniff at and the signs are all around us of large-scale, global changes to a cooling world. Each year for the next 20 years will see increasing snowfall and coverage, that in turn will reflect a vast portion of sun's energy back to space, therefore creating a very cool world.

In the next 20 years, we shall see new stunning cold records written, a new era of cold is arriving and this winter approaching may be the start to a trend.

I do see a mild period coming within the next couple of weeks which may create a warm or certainly milder spell for Europe and North America as the Arctic Oscillation returns to positive, this will allow the recharging of bitter Arctic air over the pole, by with rapid rebuilding of this air, will comes a major Arctic outbreak to Europe, Asia and North America in December and may last throughout January. The poles will be finding it easier to rebuild Arctic air as ocean temperatures are getting cooler and thus feeding back to the atmosphere which hasn;t really warmed all that much through summer, therefore the air can get cold, easier!

Thanks for reading.

Email me at superior37@hotmail.com

Is Global Warming Natural or Manmade?

2009-10-15T05:59:00.001-07:00

Mark Vogan believes Global Warming is Natural and driven by fluctuations in Solar Cycles. Carbon Dioxide may have a minute effect of global temperature but as Carbon Dioxide reactions to temperature by a lag of many hundreds of years, and we are clearly cooling and have been for some 10 +years then I believe that our earth is driven by the sun and the sun drives our oceanic cycles that then drive our weather and it's patterns!!

Let this blog know what you believe, natural or manmade?

Winter Forecasts must be sending shivers down the spines of Global Warming people

2009-10-06T10:25:00.000-07:00

Here is NOAA's always warm forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

With all the snow falling across a large area of the West and Northern tier of the USA, Scotland's Highlands and the European Alpine region, folks at the IPCC, NOAA, UK Met, Al Gore and others who depend on their warm models must surely be squirming just a little at the thought of some of these winter forecasts that are increasingly appearing from the closet actually holding water.

AccuWeather's Ken Clark (Western Expert), Henry Margusity (Eastern Expert) and Brett Anderson (Canadian Expert now have their forecast thoughts released to the public.

Henry Margusity

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=meteomadness&partner=rss&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/meteomadness/archives/2009/10/the_20092010_winter_forecast.asp

Ken Clark

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=rss&blog=Clark&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Clark/archives/2009/10/my_winter_forecast_for_the_west.asp

Here is the Old Farmers Almanac Forecast

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/a/frigid-2010-forecast-how-cold-will-the-winter-weather-be

NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

I shall be releasing my new updated version of my winter forecast for 2009-10 by October 31 for the United States and United Kingdom and Europe. My Canada Forecast updated version should be online within the next week or so when time prevails.

Here's my earlier forecast that was released back in early July and also the comparison to Joe Bastardi's. http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/08/comparing-mark-vogan-to-joe-bastardis.html

Thanks for reading. I would enjoy receiving your thoughts and ideas on this winter and even comments on the other forecasts. Please email me at superior37@hotmail.com.

- Mark Vogan

Increased Snowfall in the European Alps means Glacial Advance may have begun

2009-10-03T09:32:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

Throughout history, there have been times of Glacial Advance and times of Glacial Retreat. Since 1979, the earth has undergone a retreat of the Glaciers to a point in which promoters of man-made Global Warming has made mention that the melting witnessed across the world of both sea ice and glaciers is the worse ever, ignoring the fact that it’s all happened before, during the medieval warm period and during the early 1900s and the melting of the past was worse than during the current global warming period. By watching the past 2 winters and the summers that followed and the major drivers that have produced them as well as other outlying elements such as solar cycles and volcanic activity, I believe we may have already begun a new Glacial Advance period which will likely last the next 25-30 years, during such time, we will see brutal cold return and therefore bringing the glaciers and Global Sea Ice back to historic “peaks” How can I explain how and why we have already begun a period of glacial advance?
There has been no evidence of earth warming but plenty to suggest the opposite.. Reports coming out of Alaska in the summer of 2008 suggested glacial advance there as well as unseasonable midsummer chills.

Other large scale factors are important to consider. They are.

FACTOR 1 - WATER VAPOR INCREASES AS EARTH COOLS DOWN, 2) EARTH‘S COOLING MEANS THAT WATER VAPOR CAN TURN MORE TO SNOWFALL 3) MORE REFLECTION FROM SNOW COVERED GROUND AS WELL AS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF GLOBAL CLOUDCOVER MEANS A COLDER EARTH.
Snow first, then cold
I personally believe in order to see extreme cold with records breaking, which is happening more and more, we must see snow FIRST not after! The increase in New England snowfall as well as across the Midwest (most snow on record for many areas) as well as out West is creating an much more conducive environment for cold to growing stronger and weaken less with bountiful reflective snow cover. Less summer Arctic Ice Melt, with the colder and longer winters, mean a stronger Arctic high pressure can form also.

In order to see extreme cold and record cold, we must see a lot of the white stuff, covering a larger area than what has been seen over the past 20 years. Once coverage of snow over continents continue to expand, then we shall see the net temperature fall, setting the base for pockets of super cold air to settle over a region or continent, once the pattern is established, then new records on a large scale can be achieved. The problem in the last 30 years has been, sure we have seen record cold, but the overall temperature has been warmer, as the world’s oceans and earth’s temperature has been climbing in a natural fashion, therefore it’s tougher to see significant cold. Less snow, means less cold, isolated regions of snow or a much broader area with a paltry snow pack will mean a weaker cold pool will settle, but cover your continents with snow cover and there’s little warming achievable from the sun.

Basic physics of cold weather always will state that in order to witness the coldest nights you MUST see snow cover, so that incoming solar energy cannot penetrate the surface of the earth, whether it be, grass, soil, roads etc that collect heat and then release it at night, keeping nights warmer, even if to you and I it “feels” very cold, the true cooling potential is not met when the ground is bare. Snow cover is one of the most efficient reflective elements on our planet.
Last winter and the previous winter has seen an INCREASE IN SNOWFALL over the European Alps, the American West, Midwest, Great Lakes and New England. Last summer as well as likely this past summer witnessed year round skiing over the Alps. In order to ski throughout the summer months you must have plenty of snow but cold enough temperatures to keep that snow on the ground.

North America I believe will be the first continent to say goodbye to Global Warming with Asia and eastern Europe following and finally central and Western Europe. In order to see this process in a very simplistic way, we must increase snow covered ground continue cooling the oceans as is the case presently and this will dramatically cool the air. Once higher amounts of snow covers the earth, this feeds back to stronger Arctic high’s with warming less by bare ground and warm oceans. The Pacific has begun the process of cooling the earth and this is showing signs across North America. A few bitter Canadian winters is thickening up the Arctic Sea Ice, meaning slower ice melt in summer and later warming in spring and into summer. One of the major reasons for eastern North America seeing such a cold start to summer was because of the extent and severity of cold winter left behind, built up from the summer of 2008. The slower or lack of Ice Melt on the central and eastern Arctic Ocean and almost complete ice cover of Hudson Bay in late June, meant a cold May, June and July over the eastern Third of the US, this leads to colder winters as there is less recovery needed of the Arctic ice from summer melt.
Canada is the country to watch as global warming is soon to disappear there first as winters have gotten much colder, snow cover is increasing and summers are getting cooler OVERALL, forget the warmer than normal summer in the West of Canada and Alaska as that was a by-product of colder air in the east of the continent. If it wasn’t for that cold over the mid-section and east of the country, you simply would not have had that intensity of heat in the West.

I strongly believe significant records are due to be threatened and a major rewriting of the global cold records is about be seriously challenged and likely broken over the coming winters ahead. As increased cloud cover, turns to increased water vapor and this works with colder air temperature, this will result in increased snowfall which we are clearly seeing with late September witnessing nearly every continent on the planet with snow falling. More snow and snow that covers more of a continent and world means new cold benchmarks are ahead.
The fact that Australia has witnessed one of it’s best snow years, early snows are falling in the Alps, Western North America is makes me believe it’s colder, earlier, does this have the making of severe cold when winter hits? Could we see some significant records broken this winter?
Why I believe it’s very possible..

1) El Nino that is rippling it’s pool of hot water westwards into the central Pacific is a perfect signal to a cold North American East Coast, Western Europe winter…

2) The colder North Atlantic waters will do two things. 1) encourage less weakening of cold air masses should they cover Britain and Western Europe and eastern North America but 2) often enhances the chance of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation which produces a high pressure to form over Greenland and this dumps Arctic troughs into western Europe including the United Kingdom as well as Eastern Canada and the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic region of America, including Washington DC, New York and Montreal..

3) The Solar Cycle which is lowest in 70 years may have played a role in colder winters such as last years in Europe and North America and recent downturn of temperatures on the large scale but the many factors could be the perfect set up to an historic hemisphere-wide winter ahead.

Thanks for reading.

IS THE SOUTH TEXAS AND WESTERN WASHINGTON RECORD HOT TEMPS A BYPRODUCT TO A COOLING WORLD?

2009-09-29T11:28:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

After an interesting video by AccuWeather's Angelica Campos on the remarkable hot summer South Texas has endured and yes, even for this normally hot place, this summer has been outstanding in the "hot summer" department and here's why...

Some stats Angelica shared:

The lack of rainfall and intense heat has led to several South Texas counties having thier worst drought since 1950.

June 2009 produced 10 consecutive days at or above 100 in Austin. Averaging between 100 and 107 degrees.
July saw 23 days above 100.
August saw 21 days above 100.

Laredo averaged 5-7 degrees above normal everyday throughout the June through August period.

Interestingly I found there wasn't major heat records broken. i.e. for the month or all-time. That being said, Houston and other areas in the upper Texas coast saw their warmest as well as drist ever June. But despite the relentless blowtorch that's baked the Rio Grande Valley this summer and this will probably go down as the hottest recorded summer for communities down there, it's not the actual high's that's breaking records but more the longivity of the intense heat. Afterall there hasn't been the 110s or 115-degree days that Texas can get, but more day after day of relentless 100 to 108-degree days that's the record breaker. Otfne even in this part of the world, you will get days of cooler temps in between hotter ones.

So, why am I saying all this? Well. When I take the entire nation into all this and you see just how cool June, July and August was across much of the country, you ask, well how was it such a hot summer across a region that is NORMALLY hot and dry?

One of my theories about the significance of the 2009 summer is that if it wasn't for the exceptionally cool summer across the vast majority of the country, we simply wouldn't have seen the type of record hot and dry summer over south Texas this year.

Why? the same way we wouldn't have seen a new all-time temperatures recorded at Seattle (breaking the old record by three degrees) and Portland which hit 107 ( 1-degree shy of the all-time record).

It's NOT because the earth is warming more and more that we witnessed this relentless heat in South Texas and the blowtorch of the century in Seattle but quite the opposite. I believe that cooler air and lower thickness values that covered much of the US east of the Rockies meant that the "normally" larger coverage of warm, tropical air was suppressed at a much more southerly latitude than normal and was able to penetrate into areas normally cooler. i.e. the Canadian High that covered much of the plains and east diverted and suppressed the tropical high, therefore stopping it's normal progression northward towards the pole. Normally each and every summer, the United States is under a sub-tropical high pressure system. As the sun migrates northward in spring and summer towards the pole, a band of sub-tropical high pressure follows the sun's migration north and thus brings a hot and sunny summer to much of the United States, but a cold winter and spring meant that the Canadian high had dominance because cooler air was stronger than it has been in many years. When the sub-tropical belt pushes north but is supressed and stopped in it's tracks but a stronger Canadian high, it must go somewhere so it's cen redistribute heat away from the tropics. If stopped and it cannot spread outwards, the pressures must rise vertically, increasing the verticle temperature profile of the atmosphere and this results in wamrer surface temperatures as well as a stronger evaporation of soils and the surface, therefore resulting in worsening drought conditions.

The normally hot summer in South Texas is 90s to low 100s and the high pressure is usually spread out across a much broader scale of the lower 48, but since the Canadian high had dominace of US airspace, the subtropical ridge was forced to not only raise pressures higher into the atmosphere and warming the air aloft but it was forcing the high pressure belt to find a path of least resistence. It found a weakness in the western side of the Canadian high and therfore pushing high pressure and high heat up the West Coast bringing record heat to the Pacific Northwest, interior western Canada and Alaska.

This set up brought atmospoheric opposites since the atmosphere must find a way to balance itself out. Air must go somewhere, it doesn't just disappear, therefore Minnesota felt more like Manitoba while Seattle and Portland felt more like Las Vegas and Phoenix. To pull such concentrated cold air so far south from it's origin, it's only natural to think that warm air must surge north well away from it's origin to even things out. Just in the same way high and low pressure together forces winds to blow, so the atmosphere can find Equilibrium.

When the cold air that stationed itself from the Rockies to East Coast strengthened and record cold was witnessed, so the hot air was strengthened. Seattle's new all-time record was recorded when a reinforced surge of remarkably cold air was forced south from Canada on a northerly flow as the jet stream was of an unusual meridional alignment. Seattle and Portland topped the 100s whilst east of the Cascades high's topped near 110 to even the low 110s with pressure heights in the 590dc range just east of Seattle and Portland, suddenly the Pacific Northwest had air that was forced north from the Four Corners at the same time air from the tundra was forced south into the Rockies and N. Plains. As Seattle and Portland saw scorching downsloping off the Cascades as unusually strong thickness values were recorded over eastern Washington and Oregon and a thermal low was over the Puget Sounds and Willmette Valley ( the perfect set up for all-time heat along the coastal plain) snow was falling over Colorado and high's were stuck in the 50s and 60s in the heart of July!

The Texas heat and persistency of brutalising heat was because the normal sub-tropical ridge was squeezed and had nowhere to go, so upwards it went, building a protective shield from outside weather! This dominant feature then increased the drought and the feedback was firmly established. As the subtropical ridge surging around the Canadian high and enhanced perhaps by the El Nino, persistent sunny, hot weather brought unusually dry conditions to Alaska and western Canada and this produced 91-degree heat in Fairbanks and the 90s into the Arctic. Even the Arctic Ocean coast saw 81 degrees at Tuktoyaktuk, home to last years Ice Road Truckers.

Ultimately the earth is cooling and with cooling and greater dominance in colder air, we will see suppressed subtropical ridges in summer. The sun that migrates north as summer starts, builds and migrates the subtropical ridge with it, following the sun. But if winters become colder and the colder air covers more area of the atmosphere, the sub tropical ridge will become supressed, but it must go somewhere to redistribute the excess heat away from the tropics, where it goes, is where there is a weakness in the stronger cold pools that linger after the winter is over. That means the warmth goes where it normally doesn't, If it doesn't go somewhere, then the pressures rise ever higher into the atmosphere, what results is record breaking surface temperatures. That is exactly what happened in Seattle this summer... Global Warming is not the cause for blistering heat from Laredo to Seattle to Fairbanks or the severe drought in South Texas ...

Even as winters grow colder, we may actually see some stunning "heat records" established in the coming years even though summers may grow cooler in the broader scale. This summer is another piece of the puzzle. The signs are there to be seen. We only have to open our eyes!

Thanks for reading.

Britian to Expect a BBQ Autumn? Well the summer idea certainly Drowned didn't it.

2009-09-28T07:48:00.000-07:00

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/130037/Now-we-should-get-ready-for-a-barbecue-autumn

This article promotes the idea that our autumn will be sunny, dry and warm yet I sit here and look out at with wind and rain which has been the dominant picture the last 3 months, with a week of exception.

Sure, England might be getting warm, mild weather but a BBQ autumn? We'll see about that. Afterall, that thought is coming from the people who say this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLP228193

This is once again a clear representation of NOAA and the UK Met's complete denial to the science of what's really going on and I cannot believe the things they come up with...

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Latest well-worth-a-read articles

2009-09-26T14:40:00.000-07:00

The 2007-2008 Global Cooling Event: Evidence for Clouds as the Cause
By Dr Roy Spencer

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/09/the-2007-2008-global-cooling-event-evidence-for-clouds-as-the-cause/

Chasing a More Accurate Global Century Scale Temperature Trend
By Joseph D'Aleo

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CHASING_A_MORE_ACCURATE_GLOBAL_TREND.pdf

IS THE CURRENT RISE IN WILD WIERD AND WONDERFUL WEATHER SOMETHING ALL THAT UNUSUAL?

2009-09-25T12:31:00.000-07:00

- By Mark Vogan

From time to time every year, it seems the weather goes a little haywire. We seem to get pules across the world in which extreme events occur, whether it be your freak snowstorm in a place it never snows, or a devastating tornadoe outbreak. A drought in one place and 100-year flood in another.. I don't know how many times throughout my years of following the weather not only in the United Sate but globally have I seen not only extreme events take place but they appear to come all at once.

Is there any meaning or reasoning behind this?

A good example is presently. Atlanta and the Southeast US has seen major rainfall which has created devastating scenes and tragedy. Some scenes Atlanta and the region have never witnessed before. Then in southeast Australia, Sydney is enduring red skies and the worst duststorm in 70 years, whilst major flooding hits Tunisia and California is baking in sweltering heat and wildfires.

Is extreme events becoming more common? Is each "extreme" event becoming even more extreme? Can this be linked to increased CO2 and global warming?

Well, in my opinion and only my own. CO2 is not a factor, if so, there are many other much more powerful contributors to a rise in extreme weatther events.

When I state there could be a rise in extreme weather events, I mean, yes their correlated to global warming but a global warming of natural state. The modern warm period is on it's way out and when that happens you get a situation where you have a cold Pacific Ocean, a warm Atlantic Ocean and a warmer world but getting colder, you increase the amount of energy in the atmosphere and therefore and greater environment that supports more storms and stronger ones at that. We are maybe seeing an increase in snowstorms and they will get worse as the warm world at present cools more. The warmer than normal world with increasing cold, means greater storm energetics but the cooling will enhance condensing and water vapor release into the atmosphere. We are getting into a weather situation where winters are becoming increasingly colder in places like North America that sits beside and increasingly colde Pacific, but NW Europe that sits beside a warm Atlantic you are likely to see warmer summers and winter remain. That collision between warm and cold means bigger, badder storms. The huge key to that this is that the world has been here before and will again.

That better documentation of storms and remarkable media coverage today portrays a false image that our worlds weather is becoming more extreme. Certainly over the last 30 years, we have probably seen an increase in storminess globally, but you always get an increase in storms when the earth BEGINS cooling, so for many, their lifetime has only but seen increased warming at the current warm episode matures and fades.

Atlanta's rains and those of 2007 and 2008 in the Plains and Midwest as well as the East are a cause of the still warm AMO and cooling PDO. Increased tornadic activity in 2008 that brought a record to near record year was a cause of cooling not warming. Increased rains globally are a cause of cooling of the worlds oceans, that release more water vapor as they condense.

Drought in areas like California are increased when the Pacific COOLS not warms. A cooler Pacific lesser and weaker El Ninos. California NEEDS El Ninos to increase their often spare annual rainfall...

We have seen a rise and fall in global storm activity throughout the ages, we are currently seeing a rise as the earth warmed and is now cooling once again. Storms have likely been just as bad if not worse years ago. It is simply now that we have the combiunation of technology and human coverage that portrays a worse picture..

After all, if their are fossils that have been found in Scotland that had imprinted in them plant life only found in tropical places such as Hawaii, then we have seen a warmer and therefore stormier world in the past.

Today's is just a repeat of countless warming and cooling periods on earth.

Thanks for reading.

Why all the seemingly Extreme events across the World right now? Tomorrow I shall post on what I believe is going on!! Stay tuned

2009-09-24T12:04:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow I shall discuss the events around the world such as the Sydney duststorm, California's wildfires and heat, Tunisia and Atlanta's floods and the lack of tropical activity globally... What's happening? Is this out of the ordinary?

Stay Tuned. I shall be back tomorrow with more.

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Climate Depot Factsheet on Public Opinion About Global Warming: Americans Growing Increasingly Skeptical

2009-09-22T09:29:00.000-07:00

By Marc Morano – Climate Depot

Polling data reveals Americans are growing increasingly skeptical about man-made global warming fears and claims. Voters are rejecting so-called "solutions" like cap-and-trade as well. Below is a small sampling of recent polling data on global warming.
1) Gallup survey found global warming ranked dead last in the U.S. among ENVIRONMENTAL issues – 8th out of 8 Env. Issues - March 2009 - Excerpt: (Air and water pollution, toxic waste, animal and plant extinction and loss of tropical rainforests, all ranked as greater concerns than global warming.) "Since more Americans express little to no worry about global warming than say this about extinction, global warming is clearly the environmental issue of least concern to them. In fact, global warming is the only issue for which more Americans say they have little to no concern than say they have a great deal of concern."
2) Gallup Poll Editor: Gore has 'Failed' -- 'The public is just not that concerned' about global warming – May 5, 2009 - Excerpt: Gallup Poll Editor Frank Newport says he sees no evidence that Al Gore's campaign against global warming is winning. "It's just not caught on," says Newport. "They have failed." Or, more bluntly: "Any measure that we look at shows Al Gore's losing at the moment. The public is just not that concerned." [...] Ask people to name their biggest concerns, and just 1 percent to 2 percent cite the environment. "The environment doesn't show up at all," says Newport. "It's Al Gore's greatest frustration," says Newport. "We seem less concerned than more about global warming over the years...Despite the movies and publicity and all that, we're just not seeing it take off with the American public. And that was occurring even before the latest economic recession." He adds: "As Al Gore I think would say, the greatest challenge facing humanity . . . has failed to show up in our data."
3) Pew survey: Global warming ranks dead last as priority for Americans – Ranked 20th out of 20 issues - January 2009
4) Gallup Poll: 'Record-High 41% of Americans Now Say Global Warming is Exaggerated' - March 11, 2009 - Excerpt: This represents the highest level of public skepticism about mainstream reporting on global warming seen in more than a decade of Gallup polling on the subject. [...] Now, according to Gallup's 2009 Environment survey, more Americans say the problem is exaggerated rather than underestimated, 41% vs. 28%. [...] The 2009 Gallup Environment survey measured public concern about eight specific environmental issues. Not only does global warming rank last on the basis of the total percentage concerned either a great deal or a fair amount, but it is the only issue for which public concern dropped significantly in the past year. [...] It is the first time since 1997 that the rate of concern has not increased.
5) NPR survey: 'Climate Change' finishes dead last in yet another voter poll - 12th out of 12 issues! – July 29, 2009
6) Bloomberg News Poll: 58% of Americans view global warming as 'minor threat' or 'no real threat at all' – September 15, 2009 - Excerpt: 31 percent [of Americans] say climate change is a minor threat and just 27 percent saying it's no real threat at all.
7) 'Climate Change' ranks dead last [again] in nationwide Bloomberg poll -- Only 2% of Americans call it 'most important issue' – September 22, 2009
8) Rasmussen Poll found Only 34% Now Blame Humans for Global Warming - 'Lowest finding yet' -- 'reversal from a year ago!' - Excerpt: Forty-seven percent (47%) of U.S. voters say global warming is caused by long-term planetary trends rather than human activity.
9) Zobgy Poll: Only 30% of Americans support cap-and-trade -- 57% oppose – April 2009
10) Rasmussen Reports: Congress Pushes Cap and Trade, But Just 24% Know What It Is - May 11, 2009
11) Dem Congressman Artur Davis of Congressional Black Caucus: 'There's no public outcry to pass this legislation. It's an institutional push' – June 2009
Article Source: http://www.climatedepot.com/a/3025/Climate-Depot-Factsheet-on-Public-Opinion-About-Global-Warming-Americans-Growing-Increasingly-Skeptical

M.V - What do you think?

Atlanta Floods, Blame Global Warming!

2009-09-22T08:59:00.000-07:00

Doug Alexander walks through-waist high water flowing in front of his North Atlanta home to his car Monday to pick up his son from school. Elissa Eubanks, eeubanks@ajc.com

IMAGE SOURCE http://projects.ajc.com/gallery/view/metro/atlanta/atlanta-weather-2/

- By Mark Vogan

You can bet your bottom dollar that if it hasn't already, it will, global warming will be the cause of the flooding in Atlanta, the Southeast and southern Plains. Just like the severe drought in 2007 was also the likely cause. This is another weather event that could be actually a two-way combo of both an El Nino pattern that's becoming better established as it brings a warmer end to a very warm, dry Pacific Northwest, Western Canada and Alaskan summer and likely fall season and may be enhancing precipitation and altering distribution across the southern tier rather than points further north like we have been more aquainted with over recent La Nina years and with a warmo AMO, the drought has gone on for several years now, but things are changing and this unprecidented rain event which could become a record or near-record-breaker for Atlanta and the Southeast for amount of rain, short duration in which it came down and the sheer scale of the flooding which has submerged a large area and many of that is neighbourhoods as well as Six Flags over Georgia...

However a cooling world may also be an ingredient as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation starts to wane. A warm AMO tends to support increased drought in the Southeast and remarkably we are seeing 20 inches of rain come down across North Georgia during a warm (but waning AMO) as well as this event not linked to any tropical cyclone.

A cooling down of the globe could very well bring increased rains as well as a low solar cycle which increases global cloudcover, more cloud cover, more rainfall?

The cooling process of the Pacific is possibly enhancing the snowfall across North America after two back to back record breaking snow years in the West and for the Midwest and New England, cooling off of the atmosphere may increase condensation, therefore enhanced precipitation. Bring cooler air, you get snow!

Cooling of the Atlantic may also be responsible for increasing snowfall in the Alps of Europe also.

I think were Atlanta and the Southeast is concerned, it's more likely to be a cooling of the Globe, which means the Atlantic must be cooling, hence, a global cooling and therefore the reason for Atlanta and the South's stunning rains. Global Warming which cannot be happening when the tropics are as dead as they could ever be for time of year and the lack of activity GLOBALLY, the Pacific is stuggling to sustain this El Nino and we're seeing a fairly impressive cold pool which if I am not mistaken looks to be spreading between Newfoundland and Scotland.

Oh, of course the Antarctica is well above normal with it's vastly increasing ice pack as well as Greenland and the Arctic, global warming would NOT be increasing Arctic and Antarctic ice would it?

Thanks for Reading.

Recipe for the furture: Record Low Solar Cycle, increased Volcanic Activity and Cold Pacific

2009-09-21T12:06:00.000-07:00

- Mark Vogan

To be honest with you I am very unsure about what our winter here in Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland holds. Like I've mentioned in recent articles, winter here has been warm, it's been warm my whole life (26 years) so when anyone tells me that things are changing and truely savage winters are upon us, I am a little hesitant in buying into it.

However, simply going by historical timelines and tying in past ingredients, why can it not return to where we were long ago?

I believe, but am hesitant, that this upcoming winter will be a reminder that we here in the British Isles can still see REAL winter and the sunspot activity combined with a quite likely weakening of the El Nino which the cold Pacific cannot sustain, could lead to a very tough winter of persistent cold and snow. It happened back in 2002-2003 and with water profiles across the North Atlantic that favors a blocking pattern, there is a lot driving the idea towards a truely brutal UK winter and the US east coast must worry about the same only with their PDO status in a cold mode and the pattern evolved from the past few winters with the corridor of cold shifting from the west to east and INCREASE in Arctic sea ice, leads me to believe they could be in for one of their worst winters in perhaps a few decades.

Times are changing as we enter solar territores not seen in a lifetime, combine that with it's driving down of global ocean temperature then it's CERTAIN now that colder times are ahead.

Canada is likely in my book the first country that will experience and already has started to see the first true signs of global warming in the type of winters their now starting to see and this winter will be the eastern provinces wake-up call to colder times ahead. Sure, there have been a few tasters in the past decade but new records will become more and more frequent.

What do you think? Please send me your thoughts on these topics in the comments link below.

Check out this interesting piece.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/local/2009-09-20/earth_approaching_sunspot_records

Thanks for reading.

US STATE RECORDS CONTRADICT A LOT OF WHAT THE IPCC AND OTHERS CLAIM INCLUDING CLAIMS OF WARMEST LAND AND OCEAN ON RECORD

2009-09-19T06:33:00.000-07:00

- Mark Vogan

When I look back at climate history, it's clear when the warm and cool periods here on earth occured. From the Little Ice Age which ended around 1850, we have seen gradual warming, though in a somewhat up and down manner.

1920 to 1950 WARM PERIODS WHICH DISPLAYED MUCH HOTTER LOCAL AND NATIONAL CONDITIONS THAN ANYTHING SEEN FROM 1980 TO PRESENT.

Then 1950 to 1979 A COLD PERIOD WHICH HAS IN MANY AREAS DISPLAYED THE WORST COLD IN LIVING MEMORY

FROM 1979 TO PRESENT DAY WE HAVE SEEN GENERAL WARMTH WITH MARKED HEAT WAVES BUT ALL WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES OF A NORMAL WARM PERIOD.

I have looked deeper within warm and cold periods and focused on temperature records and found an interesting correlation in both, when and what records were set both in city and national records. There were some striking surprises however that does in my opinion go against that of what the IPCC and other bodies are preaching about today.

Most heat records were all reached in the LAST WARM PERIOD, NOT CURRENT ONE here on earth.

Check this out.. Period between 1900 and 1950 (Last Warm Period)

34 state records were recorded within this time.

Period between 1979 and Present Day (Current Warm Period)

10 state records set. OVER THREE TIMES MORE STATE RECORDS THAN CURRENT TIMES.

The July of 2006 heat wave pales in comparison to July 1936, the only state that comes close is South Dakota which tied the 120 degree record set in 36 but doesn't break it. No state in the lower 48 could beat any state record set in the mammoth heat wave of 1936. Yes there have been a selection of new city and state records set within the current warm period but these are isolated events in my opinion and can happen at any period whether the earth is warm or cold.

Though there may be new daily records broken in cities few are experiencing new all-time records despite urban expansion and population which would HELP global warming but is clearly failing to have any real effect on records that stand firm today as we head towards cool once again.

State Cold Records set in the Period between 1850 to 1920 (Cold Period)

14 cold state records set.

Period between 1920 to 1940 (Warmest! Warm Period but with extreme cold winters)

13 warm state records set.

Period between 1950 to 1979 (Last cold period)

10 cold state records set

**Period between 1980 to present (Current Warm Period)

**14 cold state records set

*** Period between 1990 and 2000 (so called warmest decade on record) displayed SEVEN NEW ALL-TIME COLD STATE RECORDS***

***Period between 1990 and 2000 experienced FIVE new all-time state warm records.. More heat waves, less frost and cold? Humm...

When claims of warmest on record come up whether it be land and ocean or just ocean, I be skeptical simply because I am not seeing the results of a warmest ever world in lack of new records being made, plus I don't see how both land and ocean or ocean could be warmer than it was when these stunning records came about in the past..

What's greatly interesting is that since 1920, we have seen the most new state records broken for cold in a time of "GLOBAL WARMING" or better understood by true climate history as the Modern Warm Period than during the late 1800s to 1920. Since 1980, we have only seen NINE new state records for heat, where as there has been FOURTEEN new state records for cold! Like the comparison between the warmest July (1936) to second warmest July (2006) these pale in comparison with each other.

When I hear claims of more heat waves and less frost, I struggle with those claims since I pull these stats out of a book here in my office and think well how can that be, especially with the fact that you'd expect more heat records than cold during a warm period but that is certainly not the case here and the decade of the 30s is by far in a league of HEAT all by itself. Sure we have seen some impressive heat over the last 30 or so years but many of those new records is to do with increased population and growth of cities and not a warmer earth, if it was due to a warmer earth we would see more widespread fall of records not isolated ones. Most new records are found across the American West and fewer over the East, why? Well those cities lie in a drier, warmer region and that of course draws more and more people to live there, similar reasoning behind more destruction from hurricanes, isn't because of increased activity or strength but because there is more in harms way. These cities are growing faster than any other and ever expanding asphalt and concreate means it heats further therefore making it easier to get hotter than before. This combined with oceanic cycles which alter precipitation also can mean a period of drier summers and therefore warmer temperatures also, combine the two and you get new heat records. But the best of it is, even at that, many great cities like New York have gotten nowhere near their old benchmarks for heat that was set back in the 30s yet their growing.

There is no deputing the warmer earth and yes the NET temperature is warm, but perfectly within the relm of natural variability and LOWER than the MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD which was back around 1900 which lasted until 1300 remembering that Greenland was very warm back then and this was during the time when the Vikings settled in a bountiful Greenland climate. Then around 1300 the earth grew colder and the vikings dissapeared, many starving or freezing to death. When looking at the warming from the 1850 departure of the Little Ice Age and the roller coaster warming, cooling up until now, there is absolutely nothing that suggests we are outwith the boundaries of natural variability, we don't have near as many state heat records between 1980 to 2009 and remarkably we have MORE state cold records since the turn of the current warming period than we did during the cold period from 1950 to 1979 for goodness sakes. We are without a doubt deffinately within that relm of normality when earth's temperature rises than anything out of the ordinary in terms of "extreme events". Since the turn to warming in 1980, I feel the heat has been somewhat dissapointing compared to the last warm period. There hasn't been anything near the severity of heat that was seen back in the 1930s and I for one would have liked to see some real blowtorch heat in places like New York or Boston and perhaps the Plains. As previously menitioned, the West has been impressive with many records broken but as much as those records may be impressive, those are a result of a different set-up than elsewhere in the world since it's naturally hotter in the desert or steppe than further east and when you have the fastest growing urban centers on earth within a desert, you've got to see the records fall there first, right? But anywhere east of the Rockies, though we have seen some localised all-timers fall, the rest has failed!

That brings me to how accurate and truthful are the claims of warmest earth temperatures on record? I personally don't believe since 2000 or the 1998 peak in earth's temperature, how we can possibly still be warming to a point never experienced in oh, say 1,000 or more years like NOAA or others are stating? How can global oceans be warmest in 2009 since records began in a year with one of the lowest tropical cyclone numbers globally, less melting of Arctic Sea Ice etc etc.. The whole global warming hysteria is becoming ever more politically driven, a fraudulent way for the government to steel money from an uneducated public.

What proves they can't be trusted is that they will come up with their results by taking away key meausuring devices that are bias cold, LOL.. You wouldn't need to do anything of the sort if their claims all along have been correct. Also. I believe like others, that Illinois like Maine new a new cold record or at least TIED it last winter. Two straight mornings that hit -36 with surrounding areas seeing -40 in Iowa and -32 in Dixon, IL it's very plausible that the reading measured was correct. Of course NOAA allowed the Maine record to stand since they might just be pushed too much with questions and they don't want that of course.. Two new cold records wouldn't bode well in this out of the ordinary human induced warming world so they needed to discard the Illinois record threat as malfuctioned equiptment...

All information from Chris Burt's "Extreme Weather" book.

Thanks for reading.

SUN'S HIBERNATION APPROACHES, NEW ERA OF HARSH WINTERS LOOM, COULD 09-10 BE A TASTER

2009-09-18T06:55:00.000-07:00

Central Park in February 2009

- By Mark Vogan

With the sun, the thing that keeps us from looking and feeling like Pluto ready to enter hibernation mode, we must now be prepared for what will be a tough 30 years ahead. Remember those winter days of the 1960s and 70s? Well you better prepare now, for those are days that are fast returning. I never have experienced anything other than modern warming. I am 26 years of age and born in the early 80s, global warming had become a way of life, however for people my age or younger, the winters of 96-97, 02-03 and 08-09 are winters that are warm compared to what's inevitably coming our way as our sun, that warm star which has brought increasingly balmier winters of the past 30 years, shortened our winter, lenghtened our summer and brought remarkable shorts and t-shirt weather to London in November and in January to New York.

Those were the good old Modern Warm Period days, their fast leaving us and a brand new era of winter will bring us back to where we were in the 60s and 70s but likely further back in time when non of us where born. We often read about those scary winters of the late 1800s and early 1900s when regular freezing of the Thames and Dutch Canals were the norm and temperatures as far south as Kent, England hit the -20s C and New Yorkers could walk from New Jersey to Manhattan, well those are the times we are likely going to face and what worries me is that we may have a winter just a couple of months away that may be more severe than anything predicted.

Last winter in the Midwest and Lakes and in the UK I believe is a wake up call to the Northern Hemisphere and world that things are changing on a global scale and for the long term. I believe the pattern that's been shaped since the La Nina of 2008, the rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice, the new record low set in Maine and what likely should have been a new Illinois record low is sure signs of cold times ahead. The 1930s displayed much warmer conditions here in the Northern world than anything seen in the 1990s and 2000s, in fact since the turn of the millenium we have clear cut evidence that suggest our world is cooling, but it's been so warm that even now as we see cooling, we are still above normal, if we aren't cooling and we're still warming up why are NOAA taking away data measuring equiptment and doing other things to change the results? If we continued warming, you wouldn't need to do anything other than sit back and watch as their theory takes charge.

Within this winter of 09-10, we may see another selection of locations in which all-time cold records are threatened we may even see another new state record for cold sometime in either January or February 2010 when New York City experiences a few days in which they struggle to get out of the single digits and nights get into the old territory of below zero. I predict this winter will bring below zero air as far south as Baltimore and DC and one of the worst snowstorms since the 70s the precedes a fiercely cold high!! We may see a blizzard cripple the DC-NY-Boston corridor before an Arctic high settles in from Ontario and Quebec which brings 50 to 60 below zero nights to central Ontario and Quebec. Somewhere in New England including Maine may face a week to two below zero and see nights get as cold if not colder than the cold outbreak of January 2004. That particular cold spell brought New York to 1 degree and 45 below to Mt Washington, NH. This time around New Hampshire may end of rewriting the history books and end of with a brand new low around -50, deeming the old -47 record, history.

New Jersey we see nights hit -20, Massachussetts -30, Boston -10 or colder and New York's Central Park get to between -2 and -5. DC could shiver to zero or lower!!

My reason for this very blunt article is that with the trend of the El Nino and the likelyhood that the warm cool pushes into the central equatorial Pacific and cooling shows up off South America, the pattern that's been shaping this very type of severity of Eastern winter the past few years and the very low solar wind and low solar irradiance is greatly concerning me, not forgetting the kind of summer just witnessed across the eastern third, the signs are screaming for such a winter to come and this for me is the winter which will rewrite the history books and bring to the front row the shouts and screams of a coming ice age.

The winter in 09-10 for the West will be mild overall but an intense cold wave early on (December) may bring fears of a brutal winter from the California Sierra to the western High Plains but as the pattern establishes itself and ridging develops over the North Pacific into Alaska and the Arctic, the vast pool of super cold air will then filter into the heart of the eastern US and brings one of the worst blasts of Arctic air not seen seen the late 70s.

This will be a sure sign of whats ahead, though we continue to see publications regularly promote global warming goodies such as the warmest summer ocean temperatures on record, yet we fail to see the seasonal number top 5 in the Atlantic and only one super typhoon we will begin to see a more uniform cooling down of both land and ocean as the sun begins to hide into hibernation and the Atlantic turns cold. The worst is still ahead by about 20 years but winters of great harshness may be only a few months away and it will only get worse as we see before our eyes the freeze over of the global warming idea as ice floes start to head from New York harbor into the Atlantic and from the Thames into the North Sea. Great Britain may also see one of it's worst winters in 30 years with new record lows set and a potential threat to the national all-time low. Making last winter a mere wake-up call.

NOAA: Warmest Global Sea-Surface Temperatures for August and Summer

2009-09-18T01:05:00.000-07:00

This article is from NOAA, check this out! This greatly surprised me to be honest with you!
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090916_globalstats.html

September 16, 2009

NCDC scientists also reported that the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was second warmest on record, behind 1998. For the June-August 2009 season, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was third warmest on record.
Global Highlights – Summer
The June-August worldwide ocean surface temperature was also the warmest on record at 62.5 degrees F, 1.04 degrees F above the 20th century average of 61.5 degrees F.
The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the June-August season was 61.2 degrees F, which is the third warmest on record and 1.06 degrees F above the 20th century average of 60.1 degrees F.
Global Highlights – August
The worldwide ocean surface temperature of 62.4 degrees F was the warmest on record for any August, and 1.03 degrees F above the 20th century average of 61.4 degrees F.
Separately, the global land surface temperature of 58.2 degrees F was 1.33 degrees F above the 20th century average of 56.9 degrees F, and ranked as the fourth warmest August on record.
Large portions of the world’s land mass observed warmer-than-average temperatures in August. The warmest departures occurred across Australia, Europe, parts of the Middle East, northwestern Africa, and southern South America. Both Australia and New Zealand had their warmest August since their records began.
The Southern Hemisphere average temperatures for land and ocean surface combined were the warmest on record for August. The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August (Northern Hemisphere summer/Southern Hemisphere winter) season according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The preliminary analysis is based on records dating back to 1880.
NCDC scientists also reported that the combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for August was second warmest on record, behind 1998. For the June-August 2009 season, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was third warmest on record.

Other Notable Developments

For the year to date, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature of 58.3 degrees F tied with 2003 for the fifth-warmest January-August period on record. This value is 0.99 degree F above the 20th century average.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic sea ice covered an average of 2.42 million square miles during August. This is 18.4 percent below the 1979-2000 average extent, and is generally consistent with a decline of August sea ice extent since 1979.
NSIDC data indicated Antarctic sea ice extent in August was 2.7 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This is consistent with the trend during recent decades of modest increases in August Antarctic sea ice extent.
Watch NOAA's visualization of the world’s land and ocean surface temperature.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

This is worth a peek! Who can we really trust these days eh!

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/17/noaas-august-global-record-is-the-result-of-one-data-set/

-M.V.

Global Warming to continue according to the Met Office

2009-09-17T13:34:00.001-07:00

This is an interesting piece published on the 14th by the Met Office..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20090914.html

Home Again!

2009-09-16T13:20:00.000-07:00

Well that's my wife and I home again after a lovely few days down in Wales where we stayed for two nights, one night in south Wales and the other in north Wales. The weather was said to be the best they had since June, so we were very fortunate, To see my photos check out http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/photo.php?pid=2713598&id=711426730&ref=nf. I shall return to blogging tomorrow.

-Mark

A LIFETIME OF GLOBAL WARMING

2009-09-13T07:05:00.000-07:00

Heavy snow on my birthday, February 2005

Heavy summer rains of September 2009

snow covered fields south of Glasgow from the air, February 2009

Was 08-09's Coldest Winter in Over A Decade for UK a fluke, a reaction to lowered solar activity or something greater ahead?

Have winters become wetter and windier and is snow and cold becoming rarer to eventually become a thing of the past in the British Isles?

The 2008-09 winter for the United Kingdom was the coldest December through February period in over a decade, it was the coldest winter season in 13 years. The first 10 days of Decembver 2008 brought the coldest period in over 30 years. February started cold and brought the heaviest snowfall in 18 years all but crippling the city of London and bringing bitter cold not seen across the south of England in years. Benson, Oxfordshire dropped to -11.8C whilst salt water froze along beaches. Aviemore, a known coldest spot in the Scottish Highlands hit -18C for the coldest since 2003. With many areas experiencing days with snow cover and sunshine by day and stars by night, we saw day after day of below freezing temperatures, dangerous ice that brought very dangerous road conditions, especially across rural areas, national road salt supplies were running out or had ran out and supplies had to be shipped in from Belgium and other European countries. It was a winter England had not seen since the late 90s for much of the UK, the only places that have seen these conditions is highland Scotland and high elevated terrain, but overall it's been mild and more often than not, warm, wet and windy.

Since the turn of the millenium I can say that 2008-09 was the coldest winter since 1995-96 or 1996-97 despite experiencing coldest actual temperatures since then in 2000-01 and 2002-03 but those winters overall warmer overall.

I have noticed that since moving to Scotland from Northern Ireland in 1990 it's become harder to see snow fall from the sky and remain on the ground for longer than a couple of days, reason being, when it snows, warm Atlantic air is never far behind and any high pressure system that brings sunshine is often more of a maritime origin than polar or Arctic, meaning the sunshine often melts the snow and a return to bare ground brings mild nights. A select few winters in my 26 years on this earth has brought severe winters of snow and cold but thought few and far between I have witnessed some noteworthy Cold Spells, During my younger days living in coastal Fife which can be bitterly cold when an East Wind blows in from Siberia which happened a few times during a selection of colder winters between 1994-1996. Although perhaps not a winter-long episode, I do remember heavy snowfalls and some very cold nights under Arctic high pressure that plunged nights below -10C and brought high pitch crunching and squeeking under your feet when walking on the frozen snow cover. I recall the kind of cold that really cut you to the bone and was painful when breathing in the air.

The worst cold period I can remember was December 1995 when we took my grandparents back to Glasgow's Central Station where they were to get the train back to the ferry at Stranraer on Scotland's southwest coast. The drive between Fife and Glasgow was roughly 1 hour and 15 mins, but snow cover and strong Arctic high pressure overhead brought very cold days, likely no warmer than -5C and nights that hit -18C as early as 7-8pm. When getting to Glasgow, we had realised that the trains diesel had froze up in the trains and there was no way they were going home to Northern Ireland that night. Extreme cold like that was certainly up to now, a once in a lifetime and indeed those were the coldest temperatures recorded for the city of Glasgow where a low of -20C was reported under perfect conditions of snow cover and a very cold air mass in place.

With a warm Atlantic Ocean the past 25 or so years and a high solar cycle, winters across the world have become weak and wimpy bringing less snowfall and warmer temperatures as well as increasing ice melt of the Arctic throughout my boyhood and up until Sept 2007 certainly when the maximum ice loss of the current warming episode peaked. The period between the late 1950s to late 1970s brought tremendous snows and extreme cold, cold never experienced in the modern age, then suddenly those winters became a thing of the past. Myself, like many others have lived our entire, albeit relatively short lives in a warmer world to that of our parents and grand parents. Their lives likely began when the last warm episode was just ending. Despite the bitter cold that followed a countrywide snowfall in the final days of December, 1995 which brought that reading of -20C to Glasgow and with that same cold spell that pushed the thermometer so low that it matched the all-time British record of -27C at Braemar in the Highlands, we did not experience the year-after-year pounding of snow and cold like our parents and grand parents did in the 1940s (1947 was the snowiest winter on record for the British Isles), 50s, 60s (1962-63 was the coldest on record) and 70s. The years in which were classified by many as real winters.

I remember 2000-2001 which brought a Christmas to Boxing day period of heavy snow across Northern Ireland, Ireland and the entire British Isles, then followed by a large Siberian Anticyclone which brought brilliant clear skies and sunshine glistening over deep snow covered fields which supported a shivering "high" to Altnaharra in Sutherland, Scotland to -8C and nights that dropped to between -15C and -20C within the cold hollows of the Scottish Highland glens (valleys), even in urban areas of the Scottish central Belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh we saw clear skies, snow cover and a pool of Arctic origin air that bought temperatures towards -18C. During my visit to my grand parents house in southeast Northern Ireland, snow lay 6 inches deep and overnight lows that bottomed out around -15C, same for the city of Belfast.

2002-2003 also saw snowfall but also frosts that thickened and expanded across the country even without snow as a strong Arctic high plunged nights once again towards frigid levels in towns and cities.

Since 2002-03 and up until the Winter of 2008-09 winters have been warm and wetter than normal with a persistent flow off the Atlantic. A warmer Atlantic has likely intensified Atlantic low pressures, deepening them more so than normal as they approach the UK, we witnessed over these warm to very warm winters alsomost continuous wind and rain swept across the country from the Atlantic, damaging gales became tiring as they kicked up huge seas, brought distruption to power and the national transport system.

2006-07 was a bad year for constant wind and rain. It seemed gales did not want to stop roaring across the country with blinding rains. New Years Eve of 2006 brought hurricane force winds of between 80-100 mph across the country.

I have witnessed many great gales in my life time with the first storm being the worst in my lifetime back in October 1987 when I was 4 and lived in central London. The Great Storm of 87 brought 90-100 mph winds roaring through London and the south of England, the destruction was remarkable and devastating. The late 90s and early 2000s supported remarkably frequent gales, many of them damaging. These were years when winters could hardly be called winters for the snow and cold aspect.

Why have winters been so warm during my lifetime?

Are winters really becoming warmer as many claim C02 rise is the reason and things will just become worse, winters here will bring less snow, cold and frost and we shall continue to see an increase in wetter, stormier conditions? Was 2008-2009 a freak winter in a warming world?

Then what about the cooling of our earth over the past 10 years? Is this something to pay attention to or will it only last so long and then trend warmer again?

What about the fact that the current solar cycle is one of the lowest in the last 100 years and they say solar cycles trend closely to global temperature, does that mean the current downturn in solar cycle output is the reason behind the cooling off of earth?

Yes, it's a tough one to think we are likely ending our at least drawing near the end of warm winters and the return of harsher winters is more than likely within the next 20 years. But looking at the past 1,000 or more years of earth and UK climate history and the relationship with solar cycles, it's inevatable that these mild winters will soon become a thing of the past just like as the 1980s came about, those winters of the late 50s through 70s became a thing of the past for our parents and grand parents. Our childhood days of infrequent cool spells will soon become a reality of increased snows and harsher cold as a brand new era of winter returns within the next 10 years. The warm pahse of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is waning and this will be cold once again by the end of 2016 when some say global warming will in fact be over.

It's inevatable that our world will be a very different one in the shorts years ahead and many stunning new cold records will be made even as early as 4-6 years from now, not 30. All-time UK, US and other Europe countries cold records will be jeapordized by new cold waves that will circle the Northern Hemisphere as the sun flips into hibernation and we start to search for new ways to keep warm.Thanks for reading.

-Mark

Memories from last winter

http://www.countrylife.co.uk/countryside/article/311504/Coldest-winter-for-over-a-decade.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/jan/07/freezing-weather-britain

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/video/2009/feb/02/snow-britain-weather-travel

Big Questions

2009-09-12T12:58:00.000-07:00

To start my blog off I am wanting to ask you several big hitting questions that's been fundamental in the argument and debate.

1) Is it possible for Carbon Dioxide, a trace element that's essential for all life on the planet eventually become the reason for all life destroyed by us human beings emitting and ultimately overheating our atmosphere? in the next 30 to 100 years?

2) Can we solely blame events like Hurricane Katrina, The heat waves of 2003 in Europe which killed some 45-55, 000 people, the United States warmest January and second warmest July in 2006? The record floods on England in 2007, All on global warming?

3) Even in 2004 when Grand Forks, North Dakota dropped to -44F for it's coldest on record, Glasgow, Scotland's -4F on December 1995, The UK's tie in coldest on record of -17F also be blamed on the same level as heat does on global warming?

It has been stated that global warming can also bring extreme cold and snowstorms as well as drought, heat and more powerful hurricanes.

According to many, including the IPCC the earth is still warming and that if we don't do something today, we will pass the tipping point. I myself up until 2006 was a believer that man was the reason for an ever warming planet. Global warming is very real, however after digging into the stats and science myself did I realise that what the media and other so-called scientists are prfessing to the the truth is very much wrong and that if you look back at earth's accurate reconstruction of temperature, we have clear cycles of both warm and cool. Is the past 29 years of "THE MODERN WARM PERIOD" thee warmest period in millions of years? Science answers, no! Is events such as killer heat waves in 1985, 1995 in Chicago, 1998, 2001, 2003 and 2006 the worst ever? No, these are all heat events that have likely occured over the centuries as well as hurricanes such as the Galveston hurricane of 1900 and Katrina of 2005..

I shall talk more and more on these questions and topics that are of great debate these days. I also intend to relate a lot of my own studies and reports on the solar cycles that have clear proff of a strong relationship between the sun's strength and earth's temperature.

Many great articles and pieces will be shown on my blog as time goes on, so stay tuned.

Thanks for reading.

-Mark

A Warm Welcome!

2009-09-12T08:04:00.000-07:00

This new blog will be dedicated to issues related to Global Warming, the great debate.

With an ever greater fight to seek the truth, I have created this blog to bring you the truth behind the science and the articles that surface day by day, I shall attempt to bring you the very latest information that filters through the internet about ever greater evidence and new issues that arise as well as present to you my own thoughts and opinion on these matters.

Thanks for logging on and check back to see what's happening out there in the ever changing world and truth behind Global Warming.

- Mark Vogan